Autodesk, Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Bullish +65

Autodesk Stock Fell 8% on Friday. Its Forward Multiple Is Near a Two-Year Low. - TIKR.com

AI-generated analysis

📉 Autodesk stock dropped 8% to $218 on September 4, 2026, following a sector-wide sell-off triggered by Adobe's CEO transition news.

💰 Fiscal Q2 revenue reached $2.05 billion, up 16.1% year-over-year, while non-GAAP EPS beat consensus at $3.30.

⚠️ The company missed third-quarter EPS guidance of $3.04-$3.09 and narrowed full-year free cash flow guidance to $2.725-$2.750 billion due to MaintainX acquisition costs.

📊 Analyst sentiment remains bullish with 24 Buy/Outperform ratings out of 36 total, and zero Underperform or Sell calls.

🎯 The mean analyst price target is $315, representing a 45% upside from the current trading price of $218.

📈 Coverage has expanded to 34 analysts, with the buy count rising from 19 to 24 over the last quarter.

💵 Autodesk trades at 17 times forward earnings, significantly below its historical average of 28x and near a 15x low.

🔮 TIKR's mid-case model projects a $379 valuation by January 2031, implying a 74% total return from current levels.

🧠 The recent price decline is attributed to sentiment-driven repricing of AI disruption fears rather than fundamental deterioration.

Bullish Signals
  • Autodesk reported strong fiscal Q2 revenue growth of 16.1% year-over-year, reaching $2.05 billion.
  • The company beat non-GAAP EPS expectations with a result of $3.30 against a consensus of $3.12.
  • Analyst sentiment remains robust with 24 Buy or Outperform ratings and zero Underperform or Sell calls among 36 analysts.
  • The mean analyst price target of $315 implies a 45% upside from the current trading price of $218.
  • Analyst coverage has expanded to 34 analysts, with the number of Buy ratings increasing from 19 to 24 recently.
  • The stock trades at 17 times forward earnings, well below its historical average of 28x, suggesting potential undervaluation.
Risk Factors
  • Autodesk missed third-quarter non-GAAP EPS guidance, forecasting $3.04-$3.09 versus the Street's expectation of $3.14.
  • The company narrowed its full-year free cash flow guidance to $2.725-$2.750 billion due to costs tied to the MaintainX acquisition.
  • Shares fell 8% on September 4, absorbing disproportionate selling pressure compared to peers like Adobe and Workday.
Full Analysis
Autodesk (ADSK) shares fell 8% on September 4, 2026, closing at $218 after a sector-wide rout triggered by Adobe's surprise CEO transition. While Autodesk reported no specific bad news, the stock absorbed significant selling pressure as investors repriced fears regarding generative AI disruption to legacy licensing models. The decline was disproportionate to peers like Adobe and Workday, suggesting underlying concerns about Autodesk's valuation and cash flow trajectory were already priced in before the broader market move. Despite the recent price drop, fundamental performance remains mixed but resilient. Autodesk beat revenue expectations with $2.05 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue (up 16.1% year-over-year) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.30 versus a $3.12 consensus. However, the company missed third-quarter EPS guidance of $3.04-$3.09 and narrowed its full-year free cash flow outlook to $2.725-$2.750 billion due to costs associated with the MaintainX acquisition. This guidance miss left the stock vulnerable to sentiment-driven selling. Analyst sentiment remains strongly bullish despite the sharp price decline, creating a significant valuation gap. Of the 36 analysts covering Autodesk, 24 rate it as a Buy or Outperform, with zero Underperform or Sell ratings. The mean price target stands at $315, representing a 45% upside from Friday's close and marking the widest target-to-close ratio in six quarters. Coverage has expanded to 34 analysts, indicating growing interest despite the stock trading at 17 times forward earnings, well below its historical average of 28x. Long-term models suggest substantial recovery potential if sentiment stabilizes. TIKR's mid-case model values Autodesk at $379 by January 2031, implying a 74% total return from current levels or approximately 13% annualized over the next four and a half years. This valuation assumes a multiple reset to around 15x forward earnings, reflecting the market's current skepticism about growth premiums in the enterprise software sector. The divergence between falling stock prices and stable analyst targets suggests the recent decline is driven by macro sentiment rather than deteriorating fundamentals.