TSLA Inc.

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Somewhat Bearish -45

Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Goldman Sachs Cuts Q3 Delivery Forecast on Weak Demand

AI-generated analysis

📉 Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney cut Tesla's Q3 delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000 due to weak sales in China, the US, and Europe.

📊 The revised Q3 estimate of 435,000 units falls below the Wall Street consensus of 456,000 deliveries tracked by Visible Alpha.

🔽 Goldman also lowered its Q4 delivery forecast to 475,000 from 515,000, though this remains above the consensus estimate of 462,000.

💰 Tesla reported quarterly revenue of $28.24 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase that beat the $26.42 billion analyst estimate.

📉 Adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 missed the $0.50 consensus by a wide margin, highlighting profitability concerns despite revenue growth.

📈 Tesla stock is down 20% year-to-date and recently hit a 12-month low of $297.38 before trading near $356.58.

🏦 Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on TSLA with a $360 price target, slightly above the current market price.

📉 Fifteen analysts have revised earnings estimates lower for Tesla in anticipation of continued demand weakness.

🚗 Markets supplied via exports from China to Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia are holding up better than domestic markets.

🏢 Institutional ownership is mixed, with Waverly Advisors cutting its position while Nykredit A/S opened a new stake worth roughly $262 million.

⚖️ The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating Tesla's self-certification of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab by September 30.

🔮 Goldman sees potential Q4 support from the Model Y Long Range ramp in the US and Europe and Full Self-Driving technology adoption.

📊 Analyst consensus remains split with an average price target of $414.68, reflecting divergent views on Tesla's near-term prospects.

Bullish Signals
  • Tesla reported quarterly revenue of $28.24 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase that significantly beat the $26.42 billion analyst estimate.
  • Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating with a $360 price target, which is slightly above the current trading price of approximately $356.58.
Risk Factors
  • Goldman Sachs cut its Q3 delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000 due to weaker monthly and weekly sales data in China, the US, and Europe.
  • The revised Q3 delivery estimate of 435,000 units falls below the Wall Street consensus of 456,000 deliveries, indicating broader demand concerns.
  • Goldman also lowered its Q4 delivery forecast to 475,000 from 515,000, reflecting persistent headwinds in key global markets.
  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 missed the $0.50 consensus by a wide margin, signaling significant profitability challenges despite strong revenue growth.
  • Tesla stock is down 20% year-to-date and recently hit a 12-month low of $297.38, reflecting investor sentiment tied to delivery misses.
  • Fifteen analysts have revised earnings estimates lower for the upcoming period, amplifying concerns about near-term growth trajectory.
  • The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating whether Tesla properly self-certified its steering-wheel-free Cybercab by September 30.
Full Analysis
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney has cut Tesla's third-quarter delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from a previous estimate of 490,000, citing weaker monthly and weekly sales data across China, the US, and Europe. This revised projection falls below the Wall Street consensus of 456,000 deliveries, aligning with broader analyst sentiment as fifteen other analysts have also lowered their earnings estimates for the upcoming period. The reduction in delivery expectations extends to the fourth quarter, where Goldman now forecasts 475,000 units compared to a prior estimate of 515,000. While this Q4 figure remains above the consensus estimate of 462,000, the outlook reflects persistent demand challenges in key markets. Goldman maintains a Neutral rating on the stock with a $360 price target, which is slightly above the current trading price of approximately $356.58. Tesla's recent quarterly financial performance highlights a divergence between top-line growth and profitability metrics. The company reported revenue of $28.24 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase that beat analyst expectations of $26.42 billion. However, adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 significantly missed the consensus estimate of $0.50, underscoring margin pressures despite strong revenue expansion. Institutional ownership dynamics show mixed signals regarding Tesla's near-term trajectory. While Waverly Advisors reduced its position by 12.1% in the second quarter, other firms like Nykredit A/S and Range Advisory increased their stakes significantly. Analyst consensus remains split, with an average price target of $414.68 supported by potential demand drivers in Q4, including the Model Y Long Range ramp-up and Full Self-Driving technology adoption.