TSLA Inc.

NASDAQ
Back to all articles
Somewhat Bearish -45

Gary Black Warns Tesla Stock Could Break Below $300, SpaceX Below $100 ...

📉 Gary Black predicts Tesla (TSLA) will drop below $300 and SpaceX (SPCX) below $100 due to excessive forward fiscal 2026 P/E multiples exceeding 175x.

📊 Tesla shares are down 29.82% year-to-date, while SpaceX has fallen 27.67% since its June IPO, erasing roughly $1.2 trillion in market value.

💬 Black argues that the recent selloff reflects investors finally taking management's cautious approach to unsupervised autonomy scaling seriously.

🚀 Billionaire Ron Baron expects SpaceX to become the world's largest company by market value with his investment growing 20-30-fold over 10-15 years.

📅 SpaceX is scheduled to report its first public earnings on August 4, ahead of a lock-up expiration on August 6 releasing up to 911.5 million shares.

📈 Price Action: Tesla closed at $307.44 with slight after-hours declines, while SpaceX rose 2.56% to $116.41 in extended trading.

📉 Benzinga Edge rankings show SPCX has negative price trends across short, medium, and long-term horizons.

📊 TSLA currently holds a Momentum score in the 11th percentile and a Growth score in the 36th percentile according to recent data.

Bullish Signals
  • Billionaire investor Ron Baron projects SpaceX could become the world's largest company by market value, with his firm's IPO investment potentially growing 20- to 30-fold over the next decade.
  • SpaceX shares recently gained 2.56% to close at $116.41, showing resilience ahead of its first public earnings report scheduled for August 4.
Risk Factors
  • Gary Black warns that both Tesla and SpaceX trade at forward fiscal 2026 P/E multiples exceeding 175x, which he considers excessive as AI-related valuations unravel.
  • Tesla shares have tumbled 29.82% so far this year, reflecting investor pressure following the company's second-quarter earnings and cautious management guidance on autonomy scaling.
  • SpaceX has slumped 27.67% since its June IPO, wiping out approximately $1.2 trillion in market value, which is roughly equal to Tesla's current market capitalization.
  • Benzinga Edge rankings indicate a negative price trend for SpaceX (SPCX) across short, medium, and long-term horizons.
Full Analysis
Well-known Tesla commentator Gary Black of The Future Fund issued a bearish outlook on Tuesday, predicting that Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares will fall below $300 and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) will drop below $100 in the coming weeks. Black attributes this expectation to excessive valuations, noting that both companies currently trade at forward fiscal 2026 price-to-earnings multiples exceeding 175 times, which he deems unsustainable as AI-related stock momentum wanes. Tesla shares have already tumbled 29.82% year-to-date and lost 5.57% over the past year, while SpaceX has slumped 27.67% since its June IPO, wiping out approximately $1.2 trillion in market value. Black suggests that investors surprised by these declines are failing to perform basic valuation math, citing pressure on Tesla following its second-quarter earnings and management's cautious approach to scaling unsupervised autonomy. Despite the bearish sentiment from Black, billionaire investor Ron Baron remains bullish on SpaceX, projecting his firm's IPO investment could grow 20- to 30-fold over the next decade and expecting SpaceX to become the world's largest company by market value. SpaceX shares recently closed up 2.56% at $116.41 ahead of its August 4 earnings report and an August 6 lock-up expiration that could release up to 911.5 million shares. Benzinga Edge rankings indicate negative price trends for SPCX across short, medium, and long terms, while TSLA shows low momentum in the 11th percentile and moderate growth in the 36th percentile. The article highlights the divergence between analyst warnings regarding high valuation multiples and optimistic long-term projections from major investors like Baron Capital.