TSLA Inc.

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Slightly Bullish +25

Why Tesla stock is down over 3% on Monday

📉 TSLA shares dropped more than 3% to trade at $393.56 as investors waited for AI milestones and robotaxi expansion progress.

🚗 Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of approximately 410,000 units.

🤖 The company decommissioned Model S and X lines at Fremont in 46 days to prepare for Optimus humanoid robot production.

📈 Jefferies raised its price target to $400 and EBIT estimate to $1.45 billion citing strong delivery performance.

💰 RBC Capital increased its price target to $500, incorporating a potential premium from an unconfirmed SpaceX acquisition scenario.

🚀 The robotaxi service launched in Austin in June 2025 but remains smaller than competitor Waymo in terms of fleet size.

📊 RBC analyst Tom Narayan increased the robotaxi segment valuation by 20% within a $4.35 per share standalone Tesla target.

🌍 The broader market declined with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and Nasdaq losing 1% amid geopolitical tensions.

Bullish Signals
  • Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, significantly beating the consensus estimate of ~410,000.
  • Jefferies raised its price target to $400 and increased EBIT estimates to $1.45 billion with a 5.1% margin.
  • RBC Capital raised its price target to $500, valuing Tesla at $435 excluding any SpaceX acquisition premium.
  • The company successfully decommissioned Model S/X lines in under 50 days to pivot manufacturing capacity toward Optimus robots.
  • Analysts view the robotaxi business as Tesla's most robust opportunity within a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.
Risk Factors
  • Stock price fell over 3% as investors expressed continued impatience regarding the rollout of AI initiatives and Optimus commercialization.
  • Robotaxi expansion has progressed gradually and remains substantially smaller than Alphabet's Waymo competitor.
  • RBC's elevated $500 target relies on an unconfirmed SpaceX acquisition scenario which could fade if no credible process emerges.
Full Analysis
Tesla stock fell over 3% on Monday as investors remained cautious regarding the company's artificial intelligence roadmap, specifically waiting for further progress in its autonomous robotaxi service and Optimus humanoid robot. The broader market also declined following President Trump's announcement of reinstating a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the stock decline, Tesla reported strong second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, significantly beating consensus estimates of around 410,000. This performance included 467,800 units of the Model 3 and Model Y. The company also announced the decommissioning of its Model S and X production lines at the Fremont facility to repurpose capacity for robot manufacturing. Analyst sentiment remains mixed but supportive of fundamentals. Jefferies raised its price target to $400 and earnings estimates following the delivery beat, while RBC Capital lifted its target to $500 based on a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario and operational synergies. Investors are awaiting further updates on AI milestones ahead of the July 22 earnings report.