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Slightly Bearish -20

Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) Stocks Jump as Oil Rises but Tesla (TSLA) Stock Lags

📈 Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) stocks jumped sharply on Monday as WTI crude oil prices surged to $86 per barrel due to Middle East geopolitical tensions.

📉 Tesla (TSLA) lagged behind peers, trading flat at $399.20 despite the oil price spike that typically benefits the EV sector.

💰 Lucid Group reported Q4 2025 revenue of $522.73 million but incurred a cost of revenue of $944.64 million and negative free cash flow of -$1.24 billion.

🚀 Rivian achieved its first full year of positive gross profit with $120 million in Q4 2025 and saw software revenue jump 109% to $447 million.

⚖️ A federal probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system for alleged traffic violations is weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

🇨🇳 Chinese EV manufacturer BYD filed paperwork to import vehicles to Canada and launched five-minute flash-charging technology, increasing competitive pressure.

📊 Analyst consensus target for Lucid is $13.85 with mixed ratings (one buy, seven hold, two sell), suggesting today's move is a short-term bounce.

🔻 UBS downgraded Rivian to Sell in January 2026 with a price target of $15, though the stock currently trades above that level at $15.82.

📉 Tesla is down 11.23% year-to-date in 2026, marking its first significant decline despite a long-term track record of being up over 2,700% in 10 years.

🌍 Rising oil prices toward $90-$100 per barrel are creating a divergence where EV peers rally while Tesla faces company-specific regulatory and competitive risks.

Bullish Signals
  • Rivian Automotive posted its first full year of positive gross profit, generating $120 million in Q4 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous cash-burning periods.
  • Rivian's software and services revenue surged 109% year-over-year to $447 million in Q4 2025, driven by high-margin streams including the Volkswagen joint venture.
  • Rivian stock has been a relative outperformer among EV peers, gaining 7.79% over the past month and 41.76% over the past year.
  • The surge in oil prices to $86 per barrel provides a short-term macro tailwind for all three EV manufacturers by increasing the relative value of electric vehicles.
  • Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe is focusing on the commercial EV market, leveraging its key partnership with Amazon for delivery vans as a differentiator.
Risk Factors
  • Lucid Group is spending nearly twice what it earns on every vehicle sold, with Q4 2025 costs of revenue at $944.64 million against $522.73 million in revenue.
  • Lucid Group burned -$1.24 billion in free cash flow during Q4 2025 alone, indicating severe liquidity pressures and a heavy reliance on Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.
  • Lucid stock has shed nearly 96% of its value over five years, dropping from a peak near $247 per share to trade around $10.48.
  • Tesla faces a new federal investigation into its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system for alleged traffic violations, creating regulatory overhang that dampens sentiment.
  • BYD is intensifying competition by filing paperwork to import EVs to Canada and recently rolled out five-minute flash-charging battery technology.
  • Reddit sentiment regarding Tesla includes concerns about SpaceX and Elon Musk's political exposure, which may deter retail investors.
Full Analysis
Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stocks rallied sharply on Monday, March 9, 2026, driven by a surge in crude oil prices to approximately $86 per barrel. The rising cost of gasoline is providing a short-term tailwind for electric vehicle manufacturers by making EVs more attractive to consumers. However, Tesla (TSLA) lagged behind its peers, trading flat despite the macroeconomic catalyst, as it faces specific headwinds unrelated to fuel costs. Lucid Group continues to face significant long-term challenges, having lost nearly 96% of its value since its peak. The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $522.73 million against a cost of revenue of $944.64 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of -$1.24 billion for the quarter. Its survival remains heavily dependent on financial support from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, and today's price increase is viewed by analysts as a temporary trading bounce rather than a fundamental rerating. Rivian Automotive showed stronger relative momentum, with its stock up 7.79% over the past month and 41.76% over the past year. The company achieved a milestone in Q4 2025 by posting its first full year of positive gross profit ($120 million) and saw software and services revenue jump 109% to $447 million, largely driven by its Volkswagen joint venture. Despite this progress, analysts remain cautious, with UBS downgrading the stock to Sell in January 2026. Tesla's underperformance is attributed to two primary factors: a new federal investigation into its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system for alleged traffic violations and intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturer BYD. BYD has expanded its reach into North America with plans to import EVs to Canada and recently unveiled five-minute flash-charging battery technology, posing a direct threat to Tesla's technological narrative. While Tesla remains up significantly over the long term, it is down 11.23% year-to-date in 2026.