SoFi Technologies, Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Slightly Bullish +15

SoFi Is Still Down 32% This Year. What Will It Take to Get SOFI Stock Back Up to $25? - 24/7 Wall St.

AI-generated analysis

📈 SoFi posted record Q2 adjusted net revenue of $1.21 billion, up 43% year-over-year, alongside a 50% jump in adjusted EPS to $0.12.

📉 Shares fell 9% on earnings day because the company maintained its full-year profit guidance despite the strong revenue beat.

💰 SoFi lifted loan originations by 69% to $14.8 billion while member growth accelerated to 35%, reaching 15.8 million members.

📉 The Technology Platform segment revenue declined 23% year-over-year following the departure of a large client, creating an overhang.

💸 Personal loan annualized charge-off rates improved to 2.62% from 2.83%, indicating better credit quality management.

📊 SoFi trades at a forward P/E of roughly 26x, which is cheaper than peers Robinhood (41x) and Affirm (69x).

📉 Recent analyst price targets were cut by major firms including Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.

🎯 Analysts project SoFi's EPS to improve to $0.59 in 2026 and $0.80 in 2027 if growth continues.

🚀 The bull case relies on an accelerating 'everything-app' flywheel where existing users drive 51% of new product openings.

⚠️ Reaching a $25 stock price requires raising profit guidance, recovering the Technology Platform, and easing credit concerns.

Bullish Signals
  • SoFi reported record Q2 adjusted net revenue of $1.21 billion, representing a 43% year-over-year increase.
  • Adjusted earnings per share surged 50% to $0.12, demonstrating strong profitability growth.
  • Loan originations increased significantly by 69% to reach $14.8 billion in the quarter.
  • Member base grew robustly by 35% to 15.8 million members, indicating strong user acquisition.
  • The personal loan annualized charge-off rate improved to 2.62%, down from 2.83% in the prior period.
  • Existing users are driving deepening engagement, accounting for 51% of new product openings.
Risk Factors
  • The stock price dropped 9% on earnings day after the company left full-year profit guidance unchanged despite a revenue beat.
  • Revenue in the Technology Platform segment fell 23% year-over-year following the departure of a large client.
  • Major Wall Street analysts including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Mizuho recently cut their price targets or maintained negative ratings.
  • The company maintains a consensus Hold rating with an average analyst price target of approximately $21, well below the current rally levels.
  • Investors remain concerned about capital intensity and credit risks, which are cited as key bear case factors.
Full Analysis
SoFi Technologies reported record Q2 2026 results with adjusted net revenue of $1.21 billion, a 43% increase year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 50% to $0.12. Despite these strong operational metrics and a significant lift in loan originations to $14.8 billion, the stock price fell 9% on the day of the report. The market reaction was driven by SoFi's decision to maintain its full-year adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance at approximately $1.6 billion and $0.60 respectively, despite the revenue beat. Analysts remain cautious with a consensus Hold rating and an average price target of roughly $21, though valuations suggest SoFi trades cheaper than peers like Robinhood and Affirm on a forward basis. The company faces specific headwinds including a 23% decline in its Technology Platform segment revenue following a major client departure and lingering concerns regarding capital intensity and credit quality. However, member growth remains robust at 15.8 million, and the personal loan charge-off rate has improved to 2.62%. To return to its early-year price levels around $25, SoFi needs to demonstrate a re-rating of its stock beyond just growth numbers. Key requirements include raising profit guidance alongside revenue in future quarters, recovering the Technology Platform segment, and alleviating investor concerns about credit risk and capital deployment. Analysts project EPS could climb to $0.80 by 2027, but immediate execution on these fronts is critical for a multi-year path forward rather than a quick snap-back.