Serve Robotics Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Bullish +75

Serve Robotics Up 13%: NVIDIA Loves It, Analysts See 67% More Upside

📈 Serve Robotics (NASDAQ:SERV) shares surged approximately 13% in Wednesday morning trading after reporting Q4 2025 financial results.

💰 The company posted Q4 revenue of $882,000, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $736,960.

🚀 Full-year FY2025 revenue reached $2.651 million, representing a 401.59% year-over-year growth rate.

🤖 The Q4 EPS loss of $0.34 is attributed to the rapid scaling of the robot fleet from roughly 100 units to 2,000 across 20 U.S. cities.

📊 Daily active robots increased dramatically from 57 in Q4 2024 to 547 in Q4 2025, while merchant partners grew from 400 to over 4,500.

🤝 NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang endorsed Serve Robotics at CES as a prime example of "physical AI," lending significant credibility to the platform.

🔧 Serve's robots utilize NVIDIA Jetson Orin compute hardware, creating a direct technological link to the dominant AI chip maker.

📈 Analysts maintain a Buy consensus with an average one-year price target of $18.80, suggesting roughly 67% upside from current levels.

🏥 The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $26 million, projecting roughly 10x growth over FY2025.

🤖 This growth is driven by the recent acquisition of Diligent Robotics for $29 million in stock, which adds the Moxi hospital assistant robot to the portfolio.

🏥 The Moxi robot has already completed over 1.25 million deliveries across more than 25 hospitals, diversifying revenue beyond food delivery.

🤝 Serve Robotics' platform is integrated with Uber Eats and DoorDash, covering 80% of the U.S. food delivery market.

💸 The Gen3 robot offers a 65% unit cost reduction compared to the prior generation, supporting sub-$1-per-delivery economics at scale.

📞 Management will host an earnings call today at 11:00 a.m. ET to discuss integration timelines and expansion pace.

⚠️ While the stock has room to run toward its 52-week high of $18.64, investors should monitor execution risks regarding the new revenue targets.

Bullish Signals
  • Serve Robotics stock surged 13% in Wednesday morning trading, heading toward $11 after reporting Q4 2025 financial results before market open on March 11.
  • The company delivered a meaningful revenue beat with Q4 2025 revenue of $882,000, surpassing the consensus estimate of $736,960.
  • Full year FY2025 revenue reached $2.651 million, exceeding the $2.506 million consensus estimate.
  • Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $26 million, representing roughly 10x year-over-year growth.
  • The acquisition of Diligent Robotics for $29 million in stock adds Moxi hospital assistant robots, which have already completed over 1.25 million deliveries across more than 25 hospitals.
  • Serve Robotics' daily active robots grew significantly from 57 in Q4 2024 to 547 in Q4 2025, while merchant partners expanded from roughly 400 to over 4,500.
  • The Gen3 robot offers a 65% unit cost reduction versus the prior generation, supporting credible sub-$1-per-delivery targets at scale.
  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang endorsed Serve Robotics as a prime example of 'physical AI' at CES, highlighting its use of NVIDIA Jetson Orin compute.
  • Eight analysts carry a Buy consensus on SERV with an average one-year price target of $18.80.
  • The company's platform is integrated with Uber Eats and DoorDash, covering 80% of the U.S. food delivery market.
Full Analysis
Serve Robotics (NASDAQ:SERV) shares surged approximately 13% in Wednesday morning trading, approaching $11 per share, following the release of its Q4 2025 financial results before market open on March 11. The company reported revenue of $882,000, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $736,960 and representing a year-over-year growth rate of 401.59%. For the full fiscal year 2025, total revenue reached $2.651 million, surpassing the $2.506 million forecast. While the company posted an EPS loss of $0.34 for Q4, CEO Ali Kashani attributed this to the strategic costs of scaling its autonomous sidewalk fleet from roughly 100 units to 2,000 across 20 U.S. cities in a single year. Operational metrics support this expansion, with daily active robots increasing from 57 in Q4 2024 to 547 in Q4 2025, and merchant partners growing from approximately 400 to over 4,500. The positive market reaction is bolstered by strong endorsements and strategic acquisitions. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang highlighted Serve Robotics at CES as a prime example of "physical AI," noting that the company's robots run on NVIDIA Jetson Orin compute. This partnership adds significant credibility to the platform. Furthermore, Serve Robotics closed its acquisition of Diligent Robotics on January 27 for $29 million in stock, integrating the Moxi hospital assistant robot which has already completed over 1.25 million deliveries across more than 25 hospitals. This acquisition introduces a recurring healthcare revenue stream distinct from food delivery. The company's platform also maintains deep integration with Uber Eats and DoorDash, covering 80% of the U.S. food delivery market. Additionally, the new Gen3 robot offers a 65% reduction in unit cost compared to the prior generation, aiding the company's goal of achieving sub-$1-per-delivery costs at scale. Looking ahead, Serve Robotics raised its 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $26 million, which would represent roughly 10x growth over FY2025. The analyst community remains bullish, with eight analysts carrying a Buy consensus and an average one-year price target of $18.80. Positive ratings have been issued by firms including Oppenheimer, Cantor Fitzgerald, Northland Capital Markets, Freedom Capital Markets, and DA Davidson. However, the stock still has room to run, trading well below its 52-week high of $18.64. Investors will be watching the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings call scheduled for 11:00 a.m. ET today, where management is expected to provide commentary on the integration timeline for Diligent Robotics, the pace of city expansions in 2026, and the execution path toward the $26 million revenue target.