Rigetti Computing, Inc.

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Slightly Bullish +20

Quantum Computing Stocks (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, QUBT) Face Deeper Pain ...

📉 Quantum computing stocks including Rigetti (RGTI), IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave (QBTS), and QUBT have declined significantly over the past month, with Rigetti and D-Wave down 30% and IonQ down 39%.

🏭 IonQ received final regulatory approval to acquire SkyWater Technology, a U.S. semiconductor foundry, creating a vertically integrated platform expected to close on July 31.

🤝 D-Wave Quantum secured an expansion agreement with AT&T to utilize its quantum computing technology across network operations, lifting sector peers in sympathy.

💰 The U.S. Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to provide over $2 billion in federal incentives to nine quantum-related companies in exchange for minority equity stakes.

📊 IonQ reported Q1 2026 revenue of $64.67 million, up 755% year over year, while D-Wave saw revenue drop 81% but bookings jump 2,000%.

🎯 Wall Street analysts maintain an average price target of $68.41 for IonQ, contrasting sharply with prediction market odds of just 6.5% for beating the next quarterly print.

📅 Key upcoming catalysts include IonQ's Q2 2026 earnings on August 5 and reports from D-Wave and Rigetti scheduled for August 6.

🛡️ The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) held up better than individual stocks, falling only 16% as its diversified basket dilutes single-stock volatility.

⚖️ IonQ carries a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 84.26x, while Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing posted no meaningful trailing P/E ratios due to unprofitable operating histories.

🔮 The sector faces a critical decision point in the next two weeks to determine if the current correction is a temporary pause or a deeper reset.

Bullish Signals
  • IonQ received final regulatory approval to complete its acquisition of SkyWater Technology, securing domestic chip supply and creating a vertically integrated full-stack quantum platform.
  • D-Wave Quantum agreed with AT&T to expand the use of its quantum computing technology across network operations, providing a concrete commercial application.
  • The U.S. Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to provide more than $2 billion in federal incentives to nine quantum-related companies, offering structural policy support.
  • IonQ reported Q1 2026 revenue of $64.67 million, representing a 755% year-over-year increase despite the broader sector decline.
  • D-Wave Quantum reported bookings jumped 2,000% year over year, indicating strong underlying demand despite volatile system-sale timing affecting current revenue.
  • The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) demonstrated relative resilience with only a 16% decline, suggesting investor interest remains in the broader quantum sector.
Risk Factors
  • Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum shares are down 30% over the trailing month, reflecting significant capital outflow from high-multiple pre-profit technology names.
  • IonQ faces substantial adjusted EBITDA losses for the full year, with guidance between -$330 million and -$310 million despite strong revenue growth.
  • D-Wave Quantum reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.86 million, down 81% year over year due to lumpy system-sale timing, which has frustrated investors.
  • Quantum pure-plays sit at the far end of the risk spectrum and tend to absorb the biggest losses when multiples contract across speculative technology.
  • Prediction markets peg IonQ's odds of beating its next quarterly print at just 6.5%, indicating significant skepticism regarding near-term earnings performance.
Full Analysis
Quantum computing stocks, including Rigetti Computing (RGTI), IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing (QUBT), have experienced significant declines over the past month as investors withdrew capital from high-multiple, pre-profit technology names. Rigetti shares fell 30%, matching the drops seen in D-Wave and Quantum Computing, while IonQ dropped 39%. This selloff is characterized as a broad sentiment reset across speculative technology rather than company-specific issues, occurring simultaneously with re-pricing in AI infrastructure and semiconductor valuations. Despite the sector-wide downturn, several bullish catalysts remain active for these companies. IonQ has received final regulatory approval to acquire SkyWater Technology, a major U.S. semiconductor foundry, expected to close on July 31, which would create a vertically integrated platform. Additionally, D-Wave secured an agreement with AT&T to expand quantum technology usage in network operations, and the U.S. Department of Commerce has signed letters of intent to provide over $2 billion in federal incentives to nine quantum-related companies. Financial metrics highlight the divergence between current performance and future expectations. IonQ reported Q1 2026 revenue of $64.67 million, a 755% year-over-year increase, though it faces substantial adjusted EBITDA losses for the full year. Conversely, D-Wave saw revenue drop 81% due to system-sale timing but recorded bookings up 2,000%. Analysts maintain an average price target of $68.41 for IonQ despite low prediction market odds for beating earnings, suggesting a potential gap between crowd sentiment and sell-side optimism that could drive future stock movement. Investors are now focused on near-term catalysts including the closing of IonQ's SkyWater deal, IonQ's Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, and subsequent reports from D-Wave and Rigetti scheduled for August 6. The next two weeks are critical in determining whether this correction is a temporary pause or the start of a deeper reset for the sector. Traders are advised to respect elevated volatility while long-term investors may look for attractive entry points if de-risking continues into August.