Rigetti Computing, Inc.

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RGTI vs IONQ: Which Quantum Computing Stock Has More Upside?

📈 The global quantum computing market was valued at $1.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $4.24 billion by 2030.

💻 Rigetti Computing (RGTI) focuses on superconducting, gate-based systems with a vertically integrated model for chip fabrication and cloud delivery.

⚛️ IonQ (IONQ) utilizes trapped-ion technology known for high qubit fidelity and strong scalability potential through modular architectures.

📉 RGTI shares have plunged 23.7% year-to-date compared to IONQ's 2.3% decline over the same period.

🏗️ Rigetti recently achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at roughly 28-nanosecond speeds using its proprietary gate design.

☁️ In April, Rigetti announced general availability of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system accessible via Amazon Braket and its own Quantum Cloud Services platform.

🤝 A Novera QPU was sold to the University of Saskatchewan in late March, indicating demand from academic and research customers for on-premise systems.

💰 Rigetti exited 2025 with roughly $590 million in cash and no debt, providing a strong balance sheet despite uneven quarterly revenue timing.

🚀 IonQ is targeting a 256-qubit system by late 2026 to further strengthen its technology leadership position.

🛡️ IonQ secured participation in DARPA's HARQ program in mid-April, boosting investor confidence in its government and technical opportunities.

💼 IonQ also highlighted a networking breakthrough involving photonic entanglement, expanding beyond standalone machines into quantum infrastructure.

📊 IonQ reported $130 million in 2025 revenue representing significant year-over-year growth compared to prior years.

💵 IonQ ended 2025 with approximately $2.4 billion in cash and investments, offering flexibility for R&D and commercialization efforts.

📉 Analysts project RGTI's 2026 sales to grow by 247.9% year-over-year according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

📉 Analysts expect IONQ's 2026 sales to grow by 82.2% year-over-year based on current consensus estimates for both companies.

Bullish Signals
  • The global quantum computing market is projected to reach $4.24 billion by 2030, expanding at a robust 20.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030.
  • Rigetti Computing achieved a notable technical milestone with 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at roughly 28-nanosecond speeds, highlighting progress in narrowing the performance gap with larger rivals.
  • Rigetti announced general availability of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system in April, removing uncertainty after earlier delays and marking a meaningful step toward revenue-generating deployments.
  • In late March, Rigetti secured a sale of its Novera QPU to the University of Saskatchewan, signaling continued demand from academic and research customers for on-premise quantum systems.
  • Rigetti exited 2025 with roughly $590 million in cash and no debt, giving it one of the strongest balance sheets among smaller public quantum peers.
  • The company's liquidity provides a substantial runway to invest in R&D, scale manufacturing, and pursue commercialization without immediate financing pressure.
  • IonQ secured participation in DARPA's HARQ program, a notable U.S. defense initiative that boosted investor confidence in the company's government opportunity and technical credibility.
  • IonQ reported $130 million in 2025 revenue, representing significant top-line growth, while guiding for $225 million to $245 million in 2026 revenue.
  • IonQ ended 2025 with roughly $2.4 billion in cash and investments, providing significant flexibility for R&D, acquisitions, and commercialization efforts.
  • The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2026 sales implies a year-over-year growth of 247.9%, indicating substantial upside potential.
Risk Factors
  • Shares of Rigetti have plunged 23.7% year-to-date, significantly underperforming IonQ which has only lost 2.3% in the same period.
  • Rigetti's 2026 financial outlook shows continued losses, with a projected loss per share of 16 cents compared to 64 cents a year ago.
  • While IonQ reported $130 million in 2025 revenue, Rigetti's quarterly revenue remains uneven due to the timing of system sales and contracts.
  • Both companies are still far from profitability in 2026, with projected losses per share of 16 cents for RGTI and 95 cents for IONQ.
Full Analysis
The article provides a detailed comparison between two quantum computing stocks, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and IonQ (IONQ), analyzing their technological approaches, financial health, and recent milestones to help investors determine which might have more upside potential. The piece notes that the global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.42 billion in 2024 to $4.24 billion by 2030, driven by applications in cybersecurity, logistics, pharmaceuticals, and AI. Rigetti focuses on superconducting, gate-based systems with a vertically integrated model, recently achieving 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity and launching its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system available via cloud services; it ended 2025 with approximately $590 million in cash and no debt. IonQ utilizes trapped-ion technology, is viewed as a commercial frontrunner with strong enterprise adoption, secured participation in DARPA's HARQ program, and reported $130 million in 2025 revenue which guidance suggests will grow to between $225 million and $245 million in 2026, finishing the year with roughly $2.4 billion in cash and investments. Financially, both companies are unprofitable but showing distinct growth trajectories and valuation expectations according to Zacks Consensus Estimates for 2026. Rigetti's sales are expected to grow by 247.9% with projected losses of 16 cents per share, while IonQ is expected to see 82.2% sales growth with projected losses of 95 cents per share, though these are significantly higher than Rigetti's loss. The article concludes that Rigetti appears more disciplined in execution and hardware development with a strong cash cushion for R&D, whereas IonQ offers the strongest revenue story in the public quantum space, accelerating top-line growth, and leadership through strategic partnerships and government initiatives like DARPA. Both companies face sharp volatility but offer outsized upside potential depending on whether investors prioritize low-cost entry into early-stage development or established commercial momentum and cloud accessibility.