Rigetti Computing, Inc.

NASDAQ Capital Market
Back to all articles
Neutral +4

Rigetti Computing Is Down 70% From Its High. Time to Buy?

📉 Rigetti Computing stock price fell approximately 70% from its recent highs, sparking investor debate on whether to buy during this dip.

💰 Revenue declined 34% to $7.1 million in 2025 due to the delayed launch of the Cepheus-1 system and government contract issues.

❗ The company reported a record operating loss of $216 million in 2025, exceeding losses from 2024 despite lower revenue.

🚀 Company technology uses a chiplet approach to tile multiple units, achieving high reliability and gate speeds up to 28 nanoseconds.

📊 Analysts forecast dramatic recovery with 219% projected revenue growth for this year and further increases through 2027.

💧 Rigetti holds approximately $444 million in liquidity, providing enough cash reserves to operate despite negative free cash flow of $77 million last year.

📈 Valuation remains highly speculative with a price-to-sales ratio over 730, making it impossible to calculate traditional earnings multiples like P/E.

⚠️ The Motley Fool analysts recommend 10 alternative stocks instead of Rigetti Computing for long-term investment portfolios.

🎯 Investors are cautioned that even if revenue growth returns, near-term profitability remains unlikely due to high operating costs.

⏳ Stock price could potentially rebound if the market perceives financial conditions improving, but volatility may persist.

Bullish Signals
  • Analysts forecast dramatic recovery with 219% revenue growth this year and a 103% increase in 2027, indicating strong future upside potential.
  • The company's unique tile approach achieves 99.5% to 99.9% reliability while using 36-qubit chiplets to create a 108-qubit system, enabling gate speeds as fast as 28 nanoseconds.
  • Rigetti has nearly $444 million in liquidity to fund operations, allowing it to stay afloat despite negative free cash flow of $77 million in 2025.
  • The stock appears to have bottomed out after a sharp decline and surged by up to 275% over a month previously, suggesting potential for substantial rebound if conditions improve.
  • Operating costs exceeding revenue may be temporary as the delayed launch of the Cepheus-1 system and paused government contract are likely one-time events affecting finances.
Risk Factors
  • Rigetti Computing's revenue fell by 34% in 2025, dropping to $7.1 million amid delays to its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system and a pause in government contract reauthorization.
  • Operating losses worsened significantly to $216 million in 2025 compared to $201 million in 2024, indicating that operating costs continue to far exceed revenue.
  • The company reported negative free cash flow of $77 million in 2025, creating financial pressure despite having approximately $444 million in liquidity.
  • Rigetti Computing faces an excessively elevated valuation with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio exceeding 730 and a price-to-book ratio of 10 despite lack of earnings or profitability.
  • The stock has given back all recent gains since February, trading in a range that leaves investors uncertain about whether the quantum computing company will ever recover.
  • Analyst forecasts for revenue growth this year rely on the assumption that the revenue decline is a one-time event, introducing uncertainty if delays persist.
  • The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team did not include Rigetti Computing in its list of 10 best stocks for investors to buy now, suggesting limited investment confidence.
  • Near-term profitability remains highly unlikely regardless of potential revenue recovery due to the company's current financial condition.
Full Analysis
Rigetti Computing's stock price has experienced significant volatility, spiking 275% over a month last fall before retreating and trading within a range by February, leaving investors wondering if the current decline represents a buying opportunity or further downside risk. The company is pursuing a unique hardware strategy that tiles together multiple 36-qubit chiplets to form a 108-qubit system, achieving reliability rates between 99.5% and 99.9% with gate speeds as fast as 28 nanoseconds, which it claims are exponentially faster than competing trapped-ion systems. Despite these technical advancements, the company has faced substantial financial headwinds, including a 34% decline in revenue to $7.1 million in 2025 due to the delayed launch of its Cepheus-1 system and a pause in government contract reauthorization. The financial picture is further strained by persistent operating costs that far exceed revenue, resulting in an expanded loss of $216 million in 2025 compared to $201 million the prior year. While liquidity stands at approximately $444 million, providing a buffer against negative free cash flow of $77 million, analysts foresee a dramatic recovery with forecasted revenue growth of 219% this year and a projected 103% increase by 2027. However, the stock's valuation remains highly speculative given the absence of earnings, which prevents a P/E ratio calculation, while its price-to-sales ratio sits over 730 and its price-to-book ratio is 10, suggesting the buy case is primarily driven by potential future upside rather than current financial stability. Investment analysts caution that near-term profitability remains highly unlikely even as revenue conditions improve, meaning any stock movement could prove temporary without underlying earnings growth to sustain momentum. The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor team specifically excluded Rigetti Computing from its latest list of ten top stocks, which has historically included high-performing companies like Netflix and Nvidia, highlighting the speculative nature of current positions in the quantum computing sector. The consensus view suggests that while Rigetti could eventually succeed in proving its financial condition to investors, it currently carries significant risk and should only be considered for speculative portfolios by those comfortable with high volatility and the potential for total capital loss until its fundamentals show marked improvement.