D-Wave Quantum Inc.

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Bullish +65

IonQ Soars 18%, D-Wave Climbs 15%, Rigetti Gains 12%: Is the Quantum Super-Cycle Back in Full Force?

📈 IonQ surged 18% to $35, driven by a University of Cambridge innovation center agreement and Q4 2025 revenue of $61.89 million, which beat estimates by over $20 million.

💰 D-Wave Quantum climbed 15% to $17, supported by Q4 bookings of $13.4 million (up 471% sequentially) and a cash balance of $635.35 million.

🤖 Rigetti Computing gained 12% to $17 following an $8.4 million C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system and imminent Novera QPU delivery to a Japanese research organization.

📉 Despite today's gains, IonQ is down 22%, QBTS is down 35%, and RGTI is down 23% year-to-date, indicating a sharp snapback within a broader downtrend.

⚠️ D-Wave Quantum reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.75 million, missing estimates by 28%, creating a notable gap between booking momentum and recognized revenue.

📉 Rigetti Computing's full-year 2025 revenue fell 34% to $7.09 million, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87 million missing estimates by 22%.

🔬 IonQ achieved a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity milestone and secured a $60 million QuantumBasel contract over four years.

🤝 D-Wave Quantum's acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc. added gate-model capability, broadening its competitive positioning against pure gate-model rivals.

📊 Analyst consensus for IonQ sits at a price target of $65.29 with 10 buy ratings and 3 hold ratings, reflecting bullish sentiment.

🌐 The synchronized rally across all three names points to sector rotation driven by macro tailwinds in AI infrastructure and defense-adjacent technology spending.

Bullish Signals
  • IonQ posted Q4 2025 revenue of $61.89 million, a 429% year-over-year increase that beat estimates of $40.26 million by a wide margin.
  • IonQ secured a $60 million QuantumBasel contract over four years and achieved a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity milestone.
  • D-Wave Quantum reported Q4 bookings of $13.4 million, up 471% sequentially, with Q1 2026 year-to-date bookings exceeding $32.8 million.
  • D-Wave Quantum holds $635.35 million in cash, providing meaningful runway for operations and growth initiatives.
  • Rigetti Computing received an $8.4 million C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system slated for H2 2026 deployment.
  • Rigetti Computing secured $5.7 million in Novera system orders with Q1 2026 shipments representing tangible commercial progress.
  • IonQ signed a new innovation center agreement with the University of Cambridge, adding institutional credibility to its global footprint.
  • D-Wave Quantum's acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc. gave it gate-model capability, strengthening its competitive positioning against rivals.
  • Rigetti Computing has $589.83 million in cash and investments plus a $35 million Quanta Computer private placement signaling institutional confidence.
  • Analyst consensus for IonQ includes 10 buy ratings with a price target of $65.29, suggesting significant upside from current levels.
Risk Factors
  • IonQ stock is down 22% year-to-date despite today's rally, indicating the move is a sharp snapback within a broader downtrend.
  • D-Wave Quantum's Q4 2025 revenue of $2.75 million missed estimates by 28%, highlighting a significant gap between booking momentum and recognized revenue.
  • Rigetti Computing's full-year 2025 revenue declined 34% year-over-year to $7.09 million, with Q4 2025 revenue missing estimates by 22%.
  • Significant options activity and retail debate over dilution and cash burn are adding volatility to IonQ's recent price move.
Full Analysis
Quantum computing stocks rallied sharply in midday trading on Tuesday, with IonQ (IONQ) surging 18%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) climbing 15%, and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) gaining 12%. The coordinated move reignited the 'quantum super-cycle' debate despite a sobering year-to-date backdrop where IONQ is down 22%, QBTS is down 35%, and RGTI has shed 23% since January. Analysts view today's action as a sharp snapback within a broader downtrend, raising questions about the rally's staying power. IonQ led the session with its stock trading at $35, driven by a new innovation center agreement with the University of Cambridge and speculation regarding national defense roles. Fundamentally, IonQ posted Q4 2025 revenue of $61.89 million, a 429% year-over-year increase that significantly beat estimates. The company also secured a $60 million QuantumBasel contract over four years and achieved a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity milestone. D-Wave Quantum is trading at $17 as investors revisit its dual-platform roadmap combining annealing and gate-model computing following the acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc. The company reported Q4 bookings of $13.4 million, up 471% sequentially, with year-to-date Q1 2026 bookings exceeding $32.8 million. D-Wave holds $635.35 million in cash, providing meaningful runway, though its Q4 2025 revenue of $2.75 million missed estimates by 28%, highlighting a gap between booking momentum and recognized revenue. Rigetti Computing rose to $17 driven by hardware deployment news, including an $8.4 million C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system slated for H2 2026 and $5.7 million in Novera system orders with Q1 2026 shipments. While Rigetti's full-year 2025 revenue declined 34% to $7.09 million, the company carries $589.83 million in cash and investments. The synchronized move across all three names suggests sector rotation fueled by renewed interest in AI infrastructure and defense spending rather than solely company-specific news.