Palantir Technologies Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
Bullish +65

Value Investor Admits Palantir Cheaper Than Expected. He Won’t Buy Until This Price

πŸ“‰ Value investor Preston Pysh refuses to buy Palantir (PLTR) above $100 despite the stock trading at $186 after a 50% monthly gain.

πŸ“Š Palantir reported a blowout Q2 with total revenue growing 92.83% and U.S. commercial revenue surging 149% year-over-year.

πŸ’° The company achieved $912 million in GAAP operating income and generated $1.220 billion in free cash flow for the quarter.

πŸ“ˆ Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.150 and $8.158 billion following the strong earnings beat.

🧠 Analyst Daniel Mahncke's DCF model based on CEO Alex Karp's guidance suggests a fair value of approximately $240.

πŸ“‰ The forward price-to-sales ratio is projected to decline from 60x today to roughly 20x as the Ontology platform gains traction.

⚠️ Pysh applies a 'halved-growth' stress test, noting that Palantir's opaque growth drivers make it harder for investors to understand the business floor compared to peers like Lululemon.

πŸ›οΈ The company's Ontology platform is viewed as a potential switching-cost moat within government and enterprise workflows.

πŸ“‰ Palantir has gained 623.18% over five years and roughly 2,809% from its January 2023 low, raising concerns about revisiting lower price levels.

Bullish Signals
  • Palantir delivered a blowout Q2 report with total revenue surging 92.83% year-over-year and U.S. commercial revenue exploding 149%.
  • The company generated robust $912 million in GAAP operating income and $1.220 billion in free cash flow, demonstrating strong financial health.
  • Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $8.150-$8.158 billion following the exceptional quarterly performance.
  • Analysts project the forward price-to-sales ratio will compress from 60x to roughly 20x as the Ontology platform establishes a durable moat in government and enterprise sectors.
Risk Factors
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 108x, which leaves zero margin for error if the business encounters any stumble or slowdown.
  • Value investor Preston Pysh refuses to buy the stock above $100, citing an inability to fully explain the opaque variables driving its massive growth compared to peers.
Full Analysis
Value investor Preston Pysh admits that Palantir (PLTR) appears cheaper than its current trading price of $186, yet he refuses to purchase the stock until it drops below $100. Pysh argues that while the headline P/E ratio overstates the company's expense due to rare underlying growth, the forward P/E of 108x leaves zero margin for error if the business stumbles. The article highlights a divergence between valuation models and investor psychology. Daniel Mahncke conducted a DCF analysis based on CEO Alex Karp's guidance, concluding that the fair value is approximately $240, with the price-to-sales ratio expected to decline from 60 to 20 as the Ontology platform establishes a moat in government and enterprise workflows. Pysh employs a 'halved-growth' stress test to distinguish between understandable business slowdowns and opaque growth drivers. He notes that while Lululemon's declines are easily attributed to consumer behavior, Palantir's massive Q2 revenue surge (92.83% total growth) makes it difficult for investors to articulate the specific variables driving the outcome without speculating. Despite strong fundamentals including $912 million in GAAP operating income and raised FY2026 revenue guidance, Pysh maintains that a disciplined investor must understand the machinery under the stock. He suggests that waiting for a lower entry point is a valid strategy but warns that such high-growth compounding may never revisit the $100 level, potentially causing investors to miss decade-long winners.