Palantir Technologies Inc.

🇺🇸NASDAQ Global Select
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Palantir Technologies Inc. stock analysis PLTR overview
Somewhat Bearish -45

Is Michael Burry Still Bearish on Palantir? Here’s What He Has to Say

📉 Palantir reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion, representing a 70% year-over-year increase with a 41% GAAP operating margin.

⚠️ The stock trades at significant premiums, including a trailing P/E ratio of 224 and a price-to-sales ratio of 76.

👋 Michael Burry remains short on Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) since the fall of 2025 as noted in his April 10, 2026 Substack post.

📝 Burry currently owns specific put options, including June 2027 $50 strikes and December 2026 $100 strikes, and has stated he is not selling them.

💰 Scion Asset Management previously disclosed roughly $912 million in bearish put exposure to Palantir through their 13F filing.

📊 Burry estimates a fair price for Palantir around $46 per share, citing concerns over stock-based compensation and non-compounding sales.

🚀 Company management guided 2026 revenue between $7.18 billion and $7.20 billion, representing approximately 61% year-over-year growth.

💸 Free cash flow reached a record $2.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach between $3.92 billion and $4.12 billion in 2026.

📉 Insider selling has been steady, with notable figure Peter Thiel disposing of over 1.9 million shares in early March at prices near $140-$147.

📉 The stock is currently trading down 20.57% year-to-date at approximately $138.02 per share.

🔮 Market sentiment remains mixed with Polymarket traders assigning roughly 81.5% odds that Palantir will beat Q1 earnings in May.

📈 Even if guidance is met, analysts note the stock would still trade at around 80 times adjusted operating income for 2026.

🤝 CEO Alex Karp has responded to criticisms by claiming Palantir is an "n of 1" that is uniquely positioned for AI model scaling.

⏳ Q1 2026 earnings are expected in early May, with analysts watching closely to see if the company can justify its high valuation multiples.

Bullish Signals
  • Palantir delivered Q4 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion, representing a massive 70% year-over-year growth.
  • The company achieved a 41% GAAP operating margin and a Rule of 40 score of 127%, which is roughly three times the standard benchmark for great software companies.
  • Net income surged to $608.68 million, up 670% year-over-year, demonstrating significant profitability expansion.
  • Management guided full-year 2026 revenue between $7.182 billion and $7.198 billion, implying sustained double-digit growth rates.
  • U.S. commercial segment growth is projected to be at least 115% in 2026, highlighting strong demand from the private sector.
  • Free cash flow for 2025 reached $2.27 billion and guidance points to $3.925-$4.125 billion for 2026.
  • Record total contract value hit $4.262 billion in Q4 alone, a 138% increase year-over-year.
  • Polymarket traders assign roughly 81.5% odds to Palantir beating its Q1 2026 earnings expectations in early May.
Risk Factors
  • Palantir trades at a trailing P/E of 224 and a price-to-sales ratio of 76, implying the stock is priced for sustained parabolic growth that Burry argues cannot persist.
  • Insiders have been steady sellers in early spring, with Peter Thiel disposing of over 1.9 million shares at prices between $140-$147, signaling potential lack of confidence from company leadership.
  • The stock is down 20.57% year-to-date and trades below its 200-day moving average of $164.43, indicating a recent cooling market sentiment despite strong Q4 results.
  • Even if Palantir hits every revenue guidance number for 2026 ($7.18-$7.2B), the stock would trade at roughly 80x adjusted operating income unless another doubling occurs in 2027-2028.
  • The company's historical reliance on heavy stock-based compensation and deal-driven sales rather than compounding ones are cited as fundamental concerns against its valuation model.
Full Analysis
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) recently reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results, delivering revenue of $1.41 billion, which represents a 70% year-over-year increase. The company achieved a GAAP operating margin of 41% and a Rule of 40 score of 127%, significantly exceeding the typical benchmark for software companies. Despite this strong financial performance, the stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 224 and a price-to-sales ratio of 76, creating a significant valuation disconnect that investors like Michael Burry continue to scrutinize. Palantir’s CEO, Alex Karp, defended these figures in a recent earnings release, describing the company as an "n of 1" and emphasizing its unique focus on scaling operational leverage through AI advancements known as "commodity cognition." Michael Burry, famously short on NVIDIA in 2010, maintains his bearish stance on Palantir, having held positions since the fall of 2025. In a Substack post dated April 10, 2026, Burry confirmed he holds June 17, 2027 strike price 50 puts and December 19, 2026 strike price 100 puts, stating, "I am not selling these today." His thesis centers on the belief that Palantir's fundamental value is well under $50 per share, citing heavy stock-based compensation, a history of unprofitability, and deal-driven sales rather than compounding ones. Burry estimates a fair price around $46 with a range from $21 to $146 depending on assumptions, arguing that even if the company hits its 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $7.18 billion, the current valuation requires another doubling in the subsequent years to be justified. The divergence between management's outlook and Burry's view is further highlighted by insider activity and market metrics. While Palantir reported free cash flow of $2.27 billion in 2025 with guidance for $3.925–$4.125 billion in 2026, notable insider selling has occurred; Peter Thiel disposed of over 1.9 million shares in early March at prices between $140 and $147. Current trading conditions show the stock at $138.02, down 20.57% year-to-date, while the 200-day moving average remains higher at $164.43. With Q1 2026 earnings expected in early May and revenue guidance set between $1.532 billion and $1.536 billion, the upcoming report will be critical in testing whether Palantir's parabolic growth narrative can sustain its premium valuation or if it validates Burry's argument that the stock is fundamentally overpriced relative to its earnings power.