NVIDIA Corporation

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Somewhat Bullish +45

Nvidia Stock Is at Its Cheapest Valuation Since 2015

Company update Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

📉 NVDA trades at a forward P/E of 17x, its lowest level since 2015 and well below the 30x historical average.

🚀 Revenue surged to $96.2 billion in August 2026, representing a 106% increase year-over-year.

💰 CEO Jensen Huang announced a $150 billion share buyback, signaling management confidence that the stock is undervalued.

📈 Analysts maintain an average price target of $327.70 across 61 firms despite the current low multiple.

⚠️ Gross margins are expected to bottom out between 71% and 72% in the fiscal fourth quarter due to rising memory costs.

🇨🇳 The company's current financial outlook explicitly assumes zero revenue from China data center compute.

📅 The next critical catalyst is the earnings report expected on November 17, 2026, with a consensus revenue target of $124 billion.

🔍 Fiscal 2028 EPS estimates show significant analyst disagreement, ranging widely from $9.80 to $18.75.

Bullish Signals
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17x, its cheapest valuation since 2015, suggesting a potential buying opportunity if growth sustains.
  • Revenue grew explosively to $96.2 billion in August 2026 (up 106%), demonstrating parabolic demand for AI chips.
  • Management executed a $150 billion share buyback, explicitly stating confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead.
  • Jensen Huang's comments and the low multiple imply that management believes the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings power.
  • Analysts have raised their average fiscal 2028 EPS estimate to $15.68, indicating continued optimism about future profitability.
Risk Factors
  • The low forward multiple of 17x suggests investors are pricing in concerns that the company's hyper-growth phase may be ending.
  • Gross margins are projected to bottom out between 71% and 72% in the fiscal fourth quarter due to rising memory costs.
  • The current financial outlook assumes no revenue from China data center compute, limiting total addressable market growth.
  • Wide dispersion in fiscal 2028 EPS estimates ($9.80 to $18.75) indicates significant uncertainty among analysts regarding long-term earnings power.
  • The stock price has risen faster than the multiple has fallen, which can signal that the market is marking down the duration of future growth.
Full Analysis
Nvidia (NVDA) is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 17x, marking its cheapest valuation since January 2015 and significantly below its historical average of 30x. Despite this low multiple, the stock remains near its 52-week high of $236.54, having risen 28.74% over the past year. The divergence between the falling multiple and rising share price indicates that earnings forecasts are growing faster than the stock price, a phenomenon driven by massive revenue increases reported in recent quarters. The company has demonstrated explosive growth with fiscal year revenues reaching $96.2 billion in August 2026, up 106% from the prior period. Management, led by CEO Jensen Huang, has signaled strong confidence in the business through a $150 billion share buyback program and guidance for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028. Analysts have raised their average fiscal 2028 EPS estimate to $15.68, with an average price target of $327.70 set by 61 analysts. However, the low valuation reflects market caution regarding the sustainability of growth and potential headwinds. The company expects gross margins to bottom out between 71% and 72% in the fiscal fourth quarter due to rising memory costs, and its outlook currently assumes no revenue from China data center compute. Investors are watching for the upcoming November 17, 2026 earnings report to see if revenue guidance clears the $124 billion consensus or if margins slip further.