NVIDIA Corporation

NASDAQ Global Select
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Somewhat Bullish +45

Nvidia stock continues to struggle even as AI peers soar: buy, sell, or hold?

AI-generated analysis

📉 NVDA shares slipped 1.1% to $201.76 on Thursday, underperforming peers like Micron (up 7%) and AMD despite a broad semiconductor rally.

📊 The stock gained only 7.6% in 2026 compared to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 74% gain, reflecting investor rotation toward memory and storage sectors.

💰 Nvidia trades at approximately 18x forward earnings, its lowest valuation since before the AI boom began, according to Bloomberg data.

🇨🇳 Reports indicate China may soon allow purchases of Nvidia's H200 chips, potentially restoring access to a previously restricted market.

🚀 SpaceX announced training Grok 4.5 on tens of thousands of Nvidia GB300 GPUs, reinforcing demand for its latest compute hardware.

📈 TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating with a $275 price target after meetings with CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress.

⚠️ Key risk identified is that AI spending slows or memory pricing collapses faster than supply tightness can offset.

🔄 Investors are increasingly shifting capital toward memory manufacturers like Micron and storage companies rather than pure-play GPU makers.

💻 Nvidia executives cited rising rental prices for legacy GPUs and expanding enterprise AI adoption as evidence of constrained compute capacity.

🔮 The next-generation Vera Rubin platform is expected to roll out in the second half of the year, extending Nvidia's opportunity beyond graphics processors.

Bullish Signals
  • TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $275 price target following meetings with CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress.
  • Nvidia executives confirmed that demand for AI computing capacity continues to exceed available supply, evidenced by rising rental prices for legacy GPUs.
  • SpaceX is training its Grok 4.5 model on tens of thousands of Nvidia GB300 GPUs, validating the utility of its latest hardware.
  • Reports suggest China may soon allow purchases of Nvidia's H200 chips, potentially reopening a significant market segment.
  • Wall Street analysts continue to raise earnings estimates for the company despite recent stock price underperformance.
  • Nvidia's combination of hardware and software positions it to benefit from the continued buildout of AI infrastructure beyond just graphics processors.
Risk Factors
  • NVDA shares slipped 1.1% on Thursday, giving back gains even as semiconductor stocks broadly rallied.
  • The stock has gained only 7.6% in 2026, significantly trailing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 74% gain and the S&P 500's 9.6% gain.
  • Nvidia is trading at around 18 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, its lowest forward valuation since before the artificial intelligence boom began.
  • Investors are rotating capital away from Nvidia toward memory manufacturers and other parts of the AI supply chain.
Full Analysis
Nvidia (NVDA) shares slipped 1.1% to $201.76 on Thursday, underperforming the broader semiconductor sector and major indices despite a rally in peers like Micron Technology and AMD. This divergence reflects an investor rotation within the AI supply chain toward memory manufacturers and other compute suppliers, rather than a fundamental deterioration in Nvidia's business. The stock's relative weakness is highlighted by its 7.6% gain in 2026, which trails the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 74% rise and the S&P 500's 9.6% gain. However, analysts note that Nvidia trades at a forward multiple of roughly 18x earnings, its lowest valuation since before the AI boom, even as Wall Street continues to raise earnings estimates. Recent catalysts include reports that China may allow purchases of Nvidia's H200 chips and SpaceX training its Grok 4.5 model on tens of thousands of Nvidia GB300 GPUs. These developments suggest strong underlying demand for Nvidia's compute capacity, with executives citing constrained supply and rising rental prices for legacy GPUs as evidence of continued strength. TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $275 price target following meetings with Nvidia leadership, emphasizing that the company's hardware-software combination positions it to benefit from expanding AI infrastructure. The firm views the current underperformance as driven by changing market preferences rather than weakening fundamentals.