Nebius Group N.V.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Somewhat Bullish +35

Nebius Is Still Up 136% This Year. It Is Time to Take Profits and Switch to Cloudflare, CoreWeave, or Snowflake?

📉 NBIS shares fell 10% to $197 amid unconfirmed rumors of a short position by Michael Burry ahead of the August 12 earnings report.

💰 Nebius trades at a high 76.42x trailing P/E ratio, reflecting its status as a top AI infrastructure winner with a 136% year-to-date gain.

🤖 The company's bull case is built on expanding capacity footprint and hyperscaler-style contracts ensuring revenue visibility into next year.

⚠️ Bearish concerns focus on high capital intensity, rich valuation multiples, and susceptibility to sentiment shifts from unverified rumors.

💼 Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is presented as a cheaper, profitable alternative with a 24.69x P/E ratio compared to Nebius's expensive multiple.

🌐 Cloudflare (NYSE:NET), CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), and Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) are noted as rotation targets but remain unprofitable on trailing earnings.

📊 The First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (NASDAQ:SKYY) offers diversified exposure to the sector with a 33.54x P/E ratio.

🗓️ Investors are advised to watch the August 12 earnings report for management commentary on capital intensity and growth justification.

🔄 Analysts suggest trimming NBIS positions or diversifying into Oracle and ETFs to avoid betting the entire cloud thesis on one high-multiple name.

Bullish Signals
  • Nebius has delivered a spectacular 136% year-to-date return, establishing itself as one of the standout AI infrastructure winners of the year.
  • The company benefits from strong AI cloud demand and a rapidly expanding capacity footprint that supports its growth narrative.
  • Hyperscaler-style contracts provide Nebius with revenue visibility extending well into next year, offering stability to its high-growth model.
Risk Factors
  • Unconfirmed rumors regarding short positions by prominent investors like Michael Burry have already triggered a 10% single-day decline in share price.
  • Investors holding large gains may face pressure to trim positions ahead of the August 12 earnings report due to elevated valuation concerns.
Full Analysis
Shares of Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) dropped approximately 10% to $197 in Thursday afternoon trading, despite remaining up 136% year-to-date. The decline follows unconfirmed community speculation regarding a potential short position by Michael Burry of Scion Asset Management and occurs just days before the company's scheduled Q2 2026 earnings report on August 12. Analysts highlight that Nebius trades at a rich 76.42x trailing 12-month P/E ratio, leaving little room for error after its massive rally. While the bull case relies on AI cloud demand and hyperscaler-style contracts providing revenue visibility, the bear case points to high capital intensity and vulnerability to rumor-driven volatility. The article suggests investors consider rotating profits into cheaper alternatives like Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), which trades at a 24.69x P/E ratio with real trailing profits, or diversified ETFs like the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (NASDAQ:SKYY). Other rotation targets mentioned include unprofitable peers such as CoreWeave and Snowflake, though swapping into them may not alter the risk profile significantly. Nebius is set to report its Q2 2026 results before the market open on August 12, which could confirm whether the growth story justifies its high multiple. The consensus takeaway is that while Nebius remains a spectacular winner, the current risk-reward balance suggests investors might consider trimming positions or diversifying into a mix of profitable cloud names and broad ETFs.