Moderna, Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Bullish +65

2 Major Reasons to Buy Moderna Stock Before July 31

📈 Moderna reported Q1 2026 revenue of $389M, a 64.58% beat against consensus and 263.6% YoY growth.

🔮 Traders price an 84% probability of another earnings beat with a put/call ratio of 0.12 ahead of the July 31 report.

💉 An FDA approval for mRNA-1010 on August 5 would make Moderna a five-product company, revitalizing its respiratory franchise.

🧬 Phase 3 data for intismeran melanoma is due later this year, showing a 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk versus KEYTRUDA alone.

💰 Management expects to finish 2026 with $4.5-$5.0B in cash and investments despite large GAAP losses.

📈 The stock has gained 83% in 2026, extending a rally driven by earnings beats and pipeline progress.

🏥 Moderna is developing intismeran alongside Merck's KEYTRUDA to treat melanoma with reduced recurrence risk.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna delivered a massive Q1 revenue beat of $389M versus the $236.36M consensus, extending a streak of five consecutive quarterly beats.
  • The stock has rallied 83% in 2026, significantly outperforming the broader biotech sector which is up only 0.4% year-to-date.
  • A potential August 5 FDA approval for mRNA-1010 would add a fifth commercial product to Moderna's portfolio, strengthening its respiratory franchise.
  • Management reaffirmed revenue growth guidance of up to 10% on a $1.94B 2025 base and expects strong cash reserves of $4.5-$5.0B by year-end 2026.
  • Phase 3 data for the intismeran melanoma candidate is expected later this year, showing a 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk compared to KEYTRUDA alone.
Risk Factors
  • Moderna continues to post large GAAP losses, although management attributes some of this to non-operating factors like an $878 million litigation settlement included in Q1.
  • The company relies heavily on upcoming regulatory decisions, specifically the August 5 FDA approval for mRNA-1010, to validate its respiratory franchise recovery.
Full Analysis
Moderna (MRNA) is approaching its Q2 2026 earnings report due on July 31, following a streak of five consecutive quarterly beats. The company recently reported Q1 revenue of $389 million, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $236.36 million and showing year-over-year growth. Market sentiment is highly bullish ahead of the release, with traders pricing an 84% probability of another beat and a put/call ratio of 0.12 indicating strong call option interest. The stock faces two major catalysts: a potential FDA approval for its mRNA-1010 respiratory vaccine on August 5, which would add a fifth commercial product to its portfolio, and positive Phase 3 data for its intismeran melanoma candidate later in the year. Management has reaffirmed revenue growth guidance of up to 10% based on a $1.94 billion 2025 base and expects to maintain a cash position between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion by year-end 2026. Despite posting large GAAP losses, the company's underlying business appears robust given the recent earnings performance and upcoming product milestones. The approval of mRNA-1010 is critical for rebuilding its respiratory franchise ahead of the 2026 to 2027 flu season, while the melanoma data could further diversify its pipeline beyond infectious diseases.