Moderna, Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Slightly Bullish +15

Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) the Worst Performing Stock to Buy on the Dip?

📉 Moderna ranks 9th on a list of worst-performing stocks to buy on the dip as of September 27.

📅 The article was published on October 1, 2024, amidst market volatility driven by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

💰 Moderna plans to reduce its R&D budget by ~20% over three years, cutting $1.1 billion from annual spend by 2027.

📉 The company faces headwinds from declining COVID-19 vaccination rates and delayed RSV vaccine revenue ramp-up.

🔬 Moderna expects to file for approval of three new products this year, including a next-gen COVID vaccine and an RSV vaccine for adults aged 18–59.

🤝 Recent strategic alliances were announced with BARDA and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma to aid product roll-outs.

📈 The company expects Q3 2024 sales to increase by 40%–50% compared to the prior year.

💵 Moderna targets ending 2024 with approximately $9 billion in cash reserves.

🎯 Wall Street analysts have set an average target price of $104.53 for MRNA shares.

⏳ The company plans to achieve operational break-even by 2028 despite providing only light guidance for 2025.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna expects Q3 2024 sales to increase by 40%–50%, indicating strong near-term revenue performance.
  • The company received a positive opinion from the European Medicine Agency regarding its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA.
  • Moderna achieved positive Phase III results for its flu and COVID-19 combo vaccine, validating its pipeline progress.
  • Strategic alliances with BARDA and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma are expected to aid future product roll-outs and commercialization.
  • The company plans to end 2024 with approximately $9 billion in cash, providing a strong balance sheet for operations.
Risk Factors
  • Moderna plans to reduce its R&D budget by ~20% over the next three years due to low sales projections.
  • The company will discontinue five research and development programs to slash $1.1 billion from its annual R&D budget by 2027.
  • COVID-19 vaccination rates are likely to continue declining, creating short-term revenue headwinds.
  • Moderna provides only light sales guidance for 2025, reflecting uncertainty in near-term demand.
  • The company targets a return to break-even operations by 2028, indicating current profitability challenges.
Full Analysis
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is ranked 9th on a list of worst-performing stocks to buy on the dip, according to an analysis published on October 1, 2024. The article contextualizes this ranking within a broader market environment characterized by volatility in late 2024, driven by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and a rotation away from technology sectors toward real estate and utilities. The company faces significant near-term headwinds, including declining COVID-19 vaccination rates and delayed revenue ramp-up for its RSV vaccine. Consequently, Moderna plans to reduce its Research and Development budget by approximately 20% over the next three years, discontinuing five programs to cut $1.1 billion from its annual spend by 2027. The company also provides limited sales guidance for 2025 and targets a return to profitability in 2028. Despite these challenges, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about Moderna's long-term prospects, citing positive Phase III results for a flu/COVID-19 combo vaccine and recent strategic alliances with BARDA and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma. The company expects Q3 2024 sales to increase by 40%–50%, aims to end the year with roughly $9 billion in cash, and has an average analyst target price of $104.53.