Moderna, Inc.

🇺🇸NASDAQ Global Select
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Moderna, Inc. stock analysis MRNA overview
Bullish +55

Moderna Is Up 14% Today: Is It Outperforming Other Vaccine Stocks Like Merck and Pfizer?

📈 Moderna shares jumped 14% to $68, hitting a new 52-week high of $69.29 in Friday afternoon trading.

🏥 The FDA advisory committee unanimously endorsed Moderna's flu vaccine mFlusiva for adults 50 and older.

💰 Q1 2026 revenue reached $389 million, a 264% year-over-year increase that beat consensus by 65%.

📅 The company reaffirmed guidance for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 in its latest 10-Q filing.

🎯 Moderna aims for a 2028 break-even goal while expanding into oncology and autoimmune disease therapies.

📉 Pfizer's Comirnaty revenue fell 59% to $232 million, highlighting reliance on non-COVID portfolios.

📊 Moderna stock is up 45% over the past month compared to Merck's 7% gain and Pfizer's 6% loss.

💸 The consensus analyst price target sits at $43.45, significantly below today's trading price of $68.

📉 Recent insider transactions show a net selling trend with 75 recent deals tilting toward sales.

⏳ The next major catalyst is the August 5, 2026 FDA decision on mRNA-1010 approval.

🔬 Upcoming Phase 3 readouts for norovirus, intismeran in melanoma, and propionic acidemia are being watched.

🏦 Jefferies raised its price target to $53 while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna shares surged 14% to hit a new 52-week high of $69.29, significantly outperforming peers Merck and Pfizer.
  • The FDA advisory committee unanimously endorsed Moderna's flu vaccine mFlusiva for adults 50 and older.
  • Q1 2026 revenue jumped 264% year-over-year to $389 million, beating consensus estimates by 65%.
  • Moderna reaffirmed guidance for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 based on its recent 10-Q filing.
  • The company is advancing a diverse pipeline including T-cell engagers, an in-vivo CAR-T program, and a personalized cancer vaccine.
  • Moderna stock has gained 45% over the past month while Merck added only 7% and Pfizer fell 6%.
  • Year-to-date performance shows Moderna up 130% against Merck's 21% gain and Pfizer's 3% decline.
  • Jefferies analyst raised its price target to $53, signaling continued interest in the company's potential.
Risk Factors
  • The consensus analyst price target is $43.45, which is well below the current trading price of $68.
  • Moderna stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x on still-uncertain forward earnings.
  • Recent insider transactions show a net selling trend with 75 recent deals tilting toward sales.
  • Leerink has a price target near $24 and Morgan Stanley near $33, indicating the stock is running ahead of Street positioning.
  • Pfizer's Comirnaty revenue fell 59% to $232 million in Q1 2026, underscoring reliance on non-COVID portfolios.
  • The sell-side consensus remains cautious with 16 Hold ratings against a smaller cluster of Buys and Sells.
Full Analysis
Moderna (MRNA) shares surged 14% to $68 in Friday afternoon trading, reaching a new 52-week high of $69.29. The rally significantly outpaced peers Merck (MRK), which rose 2%, and Pfizer (PFE), which gained 2%. Analysts attribute the move to momentum from a recent FDA advisory committee vote endorsing Moderna's flu vaccine, mFlusiva, for adults 50 and older, alongside bullish pipeline messaging regarding oncology and autoimmune diseases. Fundamentally, Moderna reported strong Q1 2026 revenue of $389 million, representing a 264% year-over-year increase that beat consensus estimates by 65%. The company reaffirmed guidance for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. However, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x on uncertain earnings, with a consensus analyst price target of $43.45, well below current levels. Insider transactions have recently tilted toward selling, suggesting investors should maintain modest position sizes given the stock's volatility. Looking ahead, the next major catalyst is the August 5, 2026 FDA decision on mRNA-1010, which would mark Moderna's fifth approved product if cleared by the PDUFA date. Investors are also monitoring upcoming Phase 3 readouts for norovirus, intismeran in melanoma, and propionic acidemia. While the stock has gained 45% over the past month against Merck's 7% gain and Pfizer's decline, the sell-side consensus remains cautious with multiple Hold ratings.