Moderna, Inc.

🇺🇸NASDAQ Global Select
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Moderna, Inc. stock analysis MRNA overview
Slightly Bullish +25

Moderna shares rise as investors revisit Q1 results, pipeline milestones, and fresh price-target bumps - Quiver Quantitative

📈 Moderna shares gained 4.6% as investors reacted positively to Q1 results and pipeline updates.

💰 Q1 2026 revenue reached $389 million, with 80% coming from international markets.

⚖️ GAAP net loss was $1.3 billion due to a $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge.

📈 Management reiterated a 2026 plan for up to 10% revenue growth and reduced operating expenses.

✅ EU regulatory approvals were secured for mNEXSPIKE and the flu+COVID combo vaccine mCOMBRIAX.

🔬 A Phase 3 trial for intismeran in high-risk stage 1 NSCLC has officially initiated.

📅 The U.S. PDUFA date for the seasonal flu vaccine candidate is set for August 5, 2026.

🏦 FMR LLC added over 15.7 million shares to its portfolio in Q4 2025.

📉 Insider selling was prominent, with President Stephen Hoge offloading 160,009 shares.

🎯 Analyst price targets range widely from $30.0 to $69.0, with a median of $34.0.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna reported Q1 revenue of $389 million, demonstrating strong international demand that accounts for roughly 80% of total sales.
  • Management has committed to reducing GAAP operating expenses in 2026, excluding the one-time litigation charge, signaling improved operational efficiency.
  • The company achieved significant regulatory milestones with EU approvals for mNEXSPIKE and the flu+COVID combo vaccine mCOMBRIAX.
  • Initiation of the Phase 3 intismeran trial in high-risk stage 1 NSCLC marks a critical step toward potential oncology revenue diversification.
  • Several analysts have lifted price targets following the quarterly release, indicating renewed investor interest in the stock's trajectory.
  • Major institutional investors like FMR LLC and Capital World Investors significantly increased their holdings in Q4 2025.
Risk Factors
  • The company recorded a substantial GAAP net loss of $1.3 billion in Q1, primarily driven by a $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge.
  • Insider selling activity has been high over the past six months, with President Stephen Hoge and Chief Legal Officer Shannon Thyme Klinger both executing sales.
  • Institutional ownership is mixed, with 319 investors decreasing their positions in the most recent quarter compared to 301 adding shares.
  • Analyst ratings are divided, with two firms issuing 'Underperform' ratings from Leerink Partners and B of A Securities.
Full Analysis
Moderna (MRNA) shares rose 4.6% following a post-earnings repricing driven by stronger international vaccine deliveries and reiterated growth frameworks for 2026. The company reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $389 million, with approximately 80% derived from international markets under long-term partnership agreements. Management highlighted a plan to return to sales growth, targeting up to 10% revenue expansion while reducing GAAP operating expenses in the current year. The financial results included a first-quarter GAAP net loss of roughly $1.3 billion, or $(3.40) per share, largely due to a non-recurring litigation settlement charge of $0.9 billion recorded in cost of sales and royalties. Excluding this one-time charge, the company emphasized its operational progress and regulatory milestones, including EU approvals for mNEXSPIKE and the flu+COVID combo vaccine mCOMBRIAX, as well as the initiation of a Phase 3 trial for intismeran in high-risk stage 1 NSCLC. Analyst sentiment remains mixed but active, with several firms lifting price targets following the quarterly release. The median analyst price target stands at $34.0, though individual targets vary significantly, ranging from $30.0 by Jefferies to a bullish $69.0 by Piper Sandler. Institutional ownership saw notable shifts in Q4 2025, with major funds like FMR LLC and Capital World Investors adding substantial positions, while others like UBS reduced theirs.