Moderna, Inc.

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Moderna, Inc. stock analysis MRNA overview
Slightly Bullish +25

Moderna Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

📅 Moderna is scheduled to report Q1 2026 earnings results on May 1, before the market opens.

📊 The company beat estimates by 18.85% in the previous reported quarter with improving sales and loss metrics.

💰 Analysts expect product sales of roughly $223.5 million, primarily driven by two COVID-19 vaccines and one RSV vaccine.

⚠️ Revenue from the RSV vaccine mResvia is projected to be minimal due to strong competition from GSK and Pfizer.

🔬 Moderna secured EU approval earlier this month for mCombriax, a new combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza.

💉 The initial filing for mCombriax was withdrawn previously but late-stage data showed superior efficacy of the standalone flu component mRNA-1010.

🧬 The company is developing over 30 investigational candidates across various clinical stages, including cancer therapies.

🤝 A key pipeline highlight is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy being evaluated in three pivotal phase III studies with Merck.

📈 Moderna has beaten earnings estimates for the trailing four consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 34.40%.

🚀 Shares have rallied 65% year-to-date while the broader industry has seen a 1% decline.

⚙️ The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a loss of $2.29 per share for this quarter.

📉 Analysis indicates a probability of earnings miss based on current Earnings ESP metrics and stock rank.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna earned strong momentum over the past four quarters, beating earnings estimates each time with an average surprise of 34.40%.
  • Year-to-date, Moderna's shares have rallied 65% against the industry's 1% decline.
  • Moderna secured approval in the EU for mCombriax (mRNA-1083), marking it as the fourth marketed product in the company's portfolio.
  • Moderna's standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior efficacy compared with GSK's approved influenza vaccine based on late-stage data announced in June 2025.
  • The pipeline includes more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across different stages of clinical studies, including cancer indications.
  • Moderna is evaluating intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed with Merck MRK, in three pivotal phase III studies targeting melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer.
Risk Factors
  • Operating losses are projected to deepen with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of a $2.29 per share loss for Q1, though The Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at an even deeper loss of $2.87.
  • The Earnings ESP stands at -25.75%, indicating high probability of missing analyst expectations and potential stock underperformance.
  • Moderna's RSV vaccine mResvia faces a softer outlook due to stiff competition from GSK and Pfizer, who have established strong footholds in the market.
  • A significant portion of product sales is expected to come from COVID-19 vaccines, raising concerns about post-pandemic revenue sustainability and demand fatigue.
  • The initial filing for mCombriax was voluntarily withdrawn last year after the agency requested additional efficacy data for the flu component, indicating previous regulatory hurdles.
  • Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is less favorable compared to the Strong Buy (#1) or Buy (#2) recommendations preferred by investors.
  • The company's standalone flu shot demonstrated superior efficacy in June 2025, but mCombriax integration still requires FDA resubmission without a guaranteed timeline.
Full Analysis
Moderna (MRNA) is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings report on May 1, ahead of the market open, following a streak of four consecutive quarters where it beat analyst estimates by an average of 34.40%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects sales of $223.5 million and a loss of $2.29 per share, both figures representing improvements over the year-ago period. Revenue is anticipated to derive primarily from two COVID-19 vaccines, Spikevax and mNexspike, as well as the RSV vaccine, mResvia. However, analysts expect minimal product sales for mResvia due to significant market competition from RSV vaccines produced by GSK and Pfizer. Beyond established products, investors are likely to monitor commercialization updates for Moderna's fourth marketed product, mCombriax (mRNA-1083), which recently received EU approval as the first combination vaccine for active immunization against COVID-19 and influenza. This initiative follows the voluntary withdrawal of the initial filing in the previous year due to requests for additional efficacy data on the flu component; Moderna addressed this with positive late-stage data announced in June 2025, where its standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, showed superior efficacy compared to GSK's approved influenza vaccine. The pipeline remains active with more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates, including the intismeran autogene personalized cancer therapy being developed in collaboration with Merck (MRK). This joint venture includes three pivotal phase III studies for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer, alongside mid-stage evaluations for bladder and renal cancers. Despite a historical track record of strong performance, analysts currently do not predict an earnings beat for this quarter, citing a negative Earnings ESP of -25.75%. The consensus estimate stands at a loss of $2.87 per share with Zacks tracking that figure at $2.29, and the company holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). In contrast to Moderna's recent stock rally of 65% year-to-date against an industry decline, other biotech stocks such as Agenus (AGEN) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) are highlighted for having positive earnings ESPs and strong buy or hold ranks. The provided content also references unrelated financial data from Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), which reported a Q1 2026 adjusted loss of $1.28 per share, narrower than the consensus estimate of $1.51. Merck's revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $16.29 billion on a reported basis, driven significantly by its flagship product Keytruda, which generated $8.03 billion in sales, an 8% increase. These earnings were impacted by a $3.62 per share charge related to the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics, while Keytruda sales beat consensus estimates by including $128 million in sales from its new subcutaneous formulation, Keytruda Qlex. All growth figures discussed regarding Merck exclude foreign exchange impacts.