Moderna, Inc.

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Moderna, Inc. stock analysis MRNA overview
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Moderna Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect - Zacks Investment Research

📅 Moderna is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 1 before the opening bell.

📈 The company's last reported quarter saw earnings beat estimates by 18.85%, but this latest report does not predict a beat.

💰 Sales consensus estimate is pegged at $223.5 million, with earnings pinned at a loss of $2.29 per share, both showing improvement year-over-year.

💉 Product sales are expected to come from three marketed vaccines: two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and the RSV vaccine (mResvia).

⚠️ RSV vaccine sales outlook is soft due to stiff competition from GSK and Pfizer, leading to expectations of minimal product revenue for mResvia.

💊 Moderna secured EU approval for mCombriax, its first combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza, which marks the company's fourth marketed product.

🔬 The FDA resubmission timeline for mCombriax is expected to be a key focus after the filing was voluntarily withdrawn last year due to efficacy data requests.

⚖️ Moderna demonstrated superior efficacy for its standalone flu shot (mRNA-1010) compared to GSK's vaccine in late-stage data announced in June 2025.

🧬 The company has a pipeline of over 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in various clinical stages targeting indications like cancer.

💊 Intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy collaboration with Merck (MRK), is under evaluation in three pivotal phase III studies for melanoma and lung cancer.

📉 Year-to-date shares have rallied 65% against the industry's 1% decline, though current Earnings ESP stands at -25.75%.

🏆 Moderna has beaten earnings estimates for each of the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 34.40%, but Zacks currently assigns a Rank #3 (Hold).

🚀 The article highlights Agenus and Inovio Pharmaceuticals as other stocks that meet specific criteria to potentially beat earnings expectations.

📊 Agenus (AGEN) has a +7.69% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, with shares rising 30% year-to-date.

📉 Inovio (INO) shows a +3.33% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #2, despite shares losing 33% year-to-date.

🔎 Readers are encouraged to use the Earnings ESP Filter to uncover other stocks with high odds of beating earnings before the report.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 1 with both sales and earnings showing improvement over the year-ago period.
  • The company earned from three marketed products, including two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and an RSV vaccine (mResvia).
  • Moderna recently secured EU approval for mCombriax, its first combination vaccine targeting both COVID-19 and influenza.
  • The initial efficacy data for Moderna's standalone flu shot demonstrated superior performance compared with GSK's approved influenza vaccine.
  • Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across various stages of clinical studies, including targets for cancer.
  • Intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy in partnership with Merck, is being evaluated in three pivotal phase III studies for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer.
  • Moderna's performance has been impressive over the past four quarters, beating estimates each time with an average surprise of 34.40%.
  • Year to date, Moderna shares have rallied 65% against the industry's decline.
Risk Factors
  • Moderna faces a Zacks Rank #3, indicating Hold status, compared to Strong Buy ratings given by analysts for other biotech peers like Agenus and Inovio.
  • The Earnings ESP for Moderna is significantly negative at -25.75%, suggesting the company's earnings are likely to miss analyst expectations for Q1 2026.
  • Analysts estimate a loss of $2.87 per share, which contrasts with the previous quarter's performance where the company beat estimates by 18.85%.
  • The RSV vaccine mResvia is expected to have minimal product sales due to stiff competition from GSK and Pfizer's strong market foothold in that segment.
  • The combination vaccine mCombriax had its initial filing voluntarily withdrawn last year after the FDA requested additional efficacy data for the flu component.
  • Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, whereas peers Agenus and Inovio hold higher-ranked statuses of #1 Strong Buy and #2 Buy respectively.
Full Analysis
Moderna (MRNA) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 1 before the opening bell. The company's last reported quarter saw earnings beat estimates by 18.85%, with Zacks Consensus Estimates for the upcoming quarter pegged at $223.5 million in sales and a loss of $2.29 per share, indicating improvement over the year-ago period. Revenue is expected to stem primarily from three marketed products: two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and an RSV vaccine (mResvia), though product sales for the RSV vaccine are anticipated to be minimal due to stiff competition from established RSV vaccines by GSK and Pfizer. Significant investor attention will focus on updates regarding Moderna's recent European Union approval for mCombriax, a combination vaccine for COVID-19 and influenza, which marks the company's fourth marketed product. The initial filing for mCombriax was withdrawn last year following regulatory requests for additional efficacy data on the flu component, an issue resolved with positive late-stage data in June 2025 showing Moderna's standalone flu shot mRNA-1010 demonstrated superior efficacy compared to GSK’s influenza vaccine. Management is expected to provide timelines for FDA resubmission and commercialization plans. Beyond its current portfolio, investors will likely seek progress updates on Moderna's pipeline, which includes more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates targeting various indications such as cancer. A key focus will be intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy being developed in collaboration with Merck (MRK), currently undergoing evaluation in three pivotal phase III studies for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer, alongside mid-stage studies for bladder and renal cancers. Over the past four quarters, Moderna has consistently beaten earnings estimates, averaging a 34.40% surprise, outperforming the industry with shares rallying 65% year to date versus an industry decline of 1%. However, analysts note that Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -25.75%, resulting in a negative outlook for an earnings beat this time around despite its strong recent performance history.