Moderna, Inc.

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Moderna Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect - Yahoo Finance

📅 Moderna is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 1, before the opening bell.

📉 Analysts expect sales of $223.5 million and a loss of $2.29 per share, showing improvement from the prior year.

💊 Sales will likely be driven primarily by two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) with minimal revenue from the RSV vaccine (mResvia).

🌍 The EU approved Moderna’s mCombriax combination vaccine for COVID-19 and influenza earlier this month, adding to its portfolio.

💉 mCombriax builds on successful late-stage data for its standalone flu shot component which showed superior efficacy against GSK’s vaccine.

🧬 Investors will focus on updates regarding the commercialization timeline of mCombriax and the FDA resubmission status.

🔬 Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across various clinical stages, including cancer therapies.

🤝 A key pipeline candidate is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck for multiple indications.

📊 Moderna has beaten earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 34.40%.

📈 Shares have rallied 65% year to date compared to the industry’s 1% decline.

⚠️ The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -25.75%, suggesting analysts do not expect a beat this time.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna beat earnings estimates by 18.85% in the last reported quarter, indicating strong performance ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings report on May 1.
  • The company has achieved an impressive track record with earnings beats in each of the trailing four quarters and an average surprise of 34.40%.
  • Moderna's shares have rallied 65% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry's 1% decline.
  • Earlier this month, Moderna secured EU approval for mCombriax (mRNA-1083), expanding its portfolio to four marketed products including two COVID-19 vaccines and an RSV vaccine.
  • The company's standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior efficacy compared with GSK's approved influenza vaccine, addressing previous concerns about mCombriax's flu component.
  • Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across different stages of clinical studies targeting various indications, including cancer.
  • Intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck MRK, is being evaluated in three pivotal phase III studies in melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer.
Risk Factors
  • Moderna is facing stiff competition from GSK and Pfizer in the RSV vaccine market, leading to expectations of minimal product sales for mResvia.
  • Analysts are projecting an earnings loss of $2.87 per share according to the Most Accurate Estimate, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
  • Moderna's stock has rallied 65% year to date despite industry-wide declines, potentially inflating valuations ahead of earnings.
  • The company previously withdrew its initial mCombriax filing due to regulatory requests for additional efficacy data on the flu component, raising lingering concerns about FDA resubmission timelines.
  • Moderna's Earnings ESP is currently negative at -25.75%, signaling a lower probability of beating estimates compared to competitors like Agenus and Inovio.
  • The firm's Zacks Rank remains #3 (Hold), suggesting limited analyst confidence relative to top-rated peers with stronger buy recommendations.
  • While the company has approved its fourth marketed product, mCombriax faces an uncertain path to commercialization following a voluntary withdrawal and subsequent efficacy concerns.
Full Analysis
Moderna is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings results on May 1, shortly before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects product sales of $223.5 million and an earnings loss of $2.29 per share, with both metrics indicating improvement compared to the prior-year period. In the previous quarter, Moderna beat estimates by 18.85%, a performance that is part of a broader trend where the company has beaten analyst expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 34.40%. However, analysts do not predict another earnings beat for this reporting period based on current data models. Revenue drivers are expected to come primarily from sales of Moderna's two COVID-19 vaccines, Spikevax and mNexspike, with significant anticipated sales from the RSV vaccine, mResvia. Despite these core products, expectations for mResvia remain modest due to stiff competition and strong market footholds held by RSV vaccines from GSK and Pfizer. Investors are also anticipated to seek updates on the commercialization plans for mCombriax, a combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza that received approval in the EU earlier this month. This marks Moderna's fourth marketed product; the initial filing for mCombriax was previously withdrawn after the agency requested additional efficacy data, an issue that was subsequently resolved with positive late-stage data announced in June 2025 regarding its flu component. The article highlights the company's diverse development pipeline, which includes more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across various stages of clinical studies, targeting indications such as cancer. A key focus for investors will be autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck, which is currently being evaluated in three pivotal phase III studies for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer, with additional mid-stage studies planned for bladder and renal cancers. Year to date, Moderna shares have rallied 65% against the industry's 1% decline. While the company carries a Zacks Rank of #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -25.75%, indicating lower odds for beating estimates compared to other highlighted biotech stocks like Agenus or Inovio, its historical performance remains a significant factor in investor analysis ahead of the earnings release.