Moderna, Inc.

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Moderna, Inc. stock analysis MRNA overview
Somewhat Bearish -25

Moderna (MRNA) May Report Negative Earnings: Know the Trend Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance

📅 Moderna (MRNA) is expected to report quarterly results for the quarter ended March 2026, with earnings anticipated on May 1.

📉 Analysts predict a year-over-year EPS increase of 9.5%, expecting a quarterly loss of $2.28 per share.

💰 Revenue is forecasted at $223.47 million, representing a significant 106.9% increase from the same quarter last year.

📊 Consensus EPS estimates have been revised slightly upward by 0.22% over the past 30 days due to analyst reassessments.

⚠️ The Zacks Earnings ESP for Moderna is -36.40%, indicating the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the consensus.

🤖 A negative Earnings ESP suggests difficulty in predicting an earnings beat, as predictive power is limited with negative readings.

⭐ Moderna currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which combined with the negative ESP makes it a non-compelling candidate for beating estimates.

📈 Historical data shows Moderna beat consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters, including an 18.85% surprise in the prior quarter.

⚖️ Stock price movements are not solely dependent on earnings surprises and can be influenced by other undisclosed factors or catalysts.

🔍 This analysis contrasts with Amgen (AMGN), which also has a negative Earnings ESP (-1.28%) but maintains a Zacks Rank of #3.

📉 Amgen's consensus EPS estimate was revised 1% up over the last 30 days, with revenue expected to rise 4.2%.

🏆 Amgen has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its trailing four quarters compared to Moderna's historical beat record.

📚 The Zacks Earnings ESP Filter can help investors identify stocks likely to beat estimates before quarterly releases.

💼 Both Moderna and Amgen reports are available for review via free stock analysis reports provided by Zacks Investment Research.

📅 Investors are encouraged to consult the Zacks Earnings Calendar for upcoming earnings announcements across the industry.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna is expected to report revenues of $223.47 million for the quarter ended March 2026, representing a significant 106.9% year-over-year increase from the prior period.
  • The consensus EPS estimate for Moderna has been revised upward by 0.22% over the last 30 days, reflecting growing analyst confidence in the company's earnings prospects.
  • Moderna has demonstrated a strong historical track record of beating consensus estimates, having exceeded expectations in each of its last four quarters.
  • The company previously delivered a positive earnings surprise of +18.85% by reporting a loss of -$2.11 per share instead of the expected -$2.60 per share.
  • Investors can utilize Moderna's Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) alongside its recent performance history as a favorable factor for assessing upcoming market opportunities.
Risk Factors
  • Analysts have recently become bearish on Moderna's earnings prospects, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -36.40% ahead of the May 1 earnings release.
  • A combination of negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 makes it difficult to predict that Moderna will beat the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter ended March 2026.
  • The expected quarterly loss of $2.28 per share indicates the company is still unprofitable, with investors focused on sustainability concerns despite revenue growth.
  • While the stock historically beats earnings estimates in four out of the last four quarters, recent bearish sentiment suggests potential downside risk if actual results fail to meet market expectations.
Full Analysis
The market anticipates Moderna (MRNA) to report year-over-year earnings growth when releasing results for the quarter ended March 2026, with an expected release date of May 1. Consensus estimates project a quarterly loss of $2.28 per share, representing a positive 9.5% improvement compared to the same period last year, while revenues are forecasted to reach $223.47 million, up 106.9% from the year-ago quarter. Although the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.22% over the past 30 days, analyst sentiment has recently turned more cautious, as indicated by a Most Accurate Estimate that is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Zacks Investment Research analysis indicates that Moderna currently possesses an Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of -36.40%, which suggests analysts are becoming bearish on the company's earnings prospects relative to the consensus. While the stock holds a Zacks Rank of #3, which typically supports positive surprises when paired with a positive Earnings ESP, the current negative reading makes it difficult to conclusively predict whether Moderna will beat or miss the consensus EPS estimate. Research notes that a positive Earnings ESP combined with a Strong Buy, Buy, or Hold rating predicts an earnings beat nearly 70% of the time, but this predictive power is not significant for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings. Looking at the company's historical performance, Moderna delivered a surprise of +18.85% in the last reported quarter after beating expectations by producing a loss of -$2.11 per share against an estimate of -$2.6 per share. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each instance, though investors should remember that past performance does not guarantee future results and other factors often drive stock price movements beyond earnings beats or misses. The article concludes by noting that while Moderna does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat based on current Earnings ESP metrics, investors are advised to consider additional factors when making trading decisions ahead of the May 1 release.