Moderna, Inc.

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Moderna, Inc. stock analysis MRNA overview
Somewhat Bullish +50

Moderna's Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know - Yahoo Finance

📈 Moderna (MRNA) is valued at $21.2 billion and is set to report Q1 2026 earnings before the market opens on Friday, May 1.

💸 Analysts expect a loss of $2.27 per share, representing a 9.9% improvement from the $2.52 loss in the prior year's quarter.

📉 Despite the expected quarterly loss, the company has beaten bottom-line estimates for each of the last four quarters.

💰 For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts project a loss of $6.99 per share, which is 3.7% narrower than the previous year's loss.

📉 Losses are expected to further decline by 37.9% year-over-year to $4.34 per share in fiscal 2027.

🚀 The stock has surged 117.4% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Health Care Select Sector ETF.

⚖️ A patent dispute resolution on Mar. 4 saw shares soar 16% after Moderna agreed to pay up to $2.25 billion to Arbutus Biopharma Corporation.

🏛️ The settlement eliminated legal overhangs, confirmed no future royalties will be required, and clarified the company's infectious disease portfolio.

💉 Moderna received a favorable opinion from the European Medicines Agency for its combination vaccine targeting influenza and COVID-19 in individuals aged 50+.

⚠️ Wall Street analysts currently hold an overall "Hold" rating on MRNA stock with mixed recommendations across buy and sell sides.

🎯 The company trades above the mean analyst price target of $44.90 but below a high potential upside of 151.3% to the street-high target of $135.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna has topped Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in each of the last four quarters, demonstrating consistent performance above analyst expectations.
  • In Q4 2025, Moderna's loss of $2.11 per share outpaced consensus expectations by a notable margin of 18.9%.
  • The expected loss for the current fiscal year is $6.99 per share, which is 3.7% narrower than the loss of $7.26 per share in fiscal 2025.
  • Analysts project the loss will further decline 37.9% year-over-year to $4.34 per share in fiscal 2027.
  • Shares skyrocketed 117.4% over the past 52 weeks, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 Index's 34.9% return and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's 9.8% uptick.
  • On Mar. 4, shares soared 16% after Moderna resolved a patent dispute and agreed to pay up to $2.25 billion to Arbutus Biopharma Corporation and Genevant Sciences, eliminating a significant legal and financial overhang.
  • The settlement confirmed no future royalties will be required for Moderna's broader infectious disease portfolio.
  • Moderna received a favorable opinion from the European Medicines Agency for its combination vaccine targeting both influenza and COVID-19 in individuals aged 50 and above.
  • Wall Street analysts suggest a Street-high price target of $135, indicating 151.3% potential upside from current trading levels while the company trades above its mean price target of $44.90.
Risk Factors
  • Analysts expect Moderna to report a significant loss of $2.27 per share for the fiscal Q1 2026, representing only a slight improvement from the prior year's loss of $2.52.
  • The company is expected to post a total annual loss of $6.99 per share for the current fiscal year ending in December, with no expectation of profitability in the near term.
  • Despite a massive 117.4% stock price surge over the past 52 weeks, Wall Street analysts maintain an overall "Hold" rating on MRNA's stock.
  • Out of 24 analysts covering the stock, only two recommend "Strong Buy," while one suggests a "Moderate Buy" and two advise a "Strong Sell."
  • The company has paid up to $2.25 billion to Arbutus Biopharma Corporation and Genevant Sciences for patent disputes, creating a substantial cash outflow.
  • Moderna is currently trading above the mean price target of $44.90, suggesting limited upside potential compared to the Street-high target of $135.
Full Analysis
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology firm valued at $21.2 billion, is poised to report its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings before market open on Friday, May 1. Analysts anticipate a loss of $2.27 per share for the quarter, representing a 9.9% improvement from the previous year's loss of $2.52 per share. The company has consistently exceeded Wall Street bottom-line estimates for the past four quarters, with Q4 2025 seeing an actual loss of $2.11 per share that surpassed consensus expectations by 18.9%. For the current fiscal year ending in December, a narrower loss of $6.99 per share is forecasted, compared to a reported loss of $7.26 per share in fiscal 2025, with projections indicating the annual loss will decline another 37.9% year-over-year to $4.34 per share in fiscal 2027. Stock performance for Moderna has been robust, with shares surging 117.4% over the past 52 weeks, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 34.9% return and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF’s 9.8% gain in the same period. This momentum was notably bolstered on March 4 when shares jumped 16% after Moderna resolved a long-standing patent dispute regarding its COVID-19 vaccine technology with Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) and Genevant Sciences, settling for up to $2.25 billion in payments that removed a significant legal overhang from the stock. Additionally, the European Medicines Agency issued a favorable opinion on Moderna's combination vaccine targeting influenza and COVID-19 for individuals aged 50 and above, providing further clarity to its infectious disease portfolio regarding future royalty obligations. Despite strong performance and recent positive catalysts, Wall Street analysts maintain a generally cautious stance with an overall "Hold" rating for the stock. Among the 24 analysts covering MRNA, only two recommend "Strong Buy," while nineteen suggest "Hold," one indicates a "Moderate Buy," and two advise "Strong Sell." Although the company is currently trading above its mean price target of $44.90, the Street-high price target of $135 suggests a potential upside of 151.3% from current levels. The earnings preview comes amid broader market focus on biotechnology sector developments and regulatory clarity for mRNA therapeutics.