IonQ, Inc.

🇺🇸New York Stock Exchange
Back to all articles
IonQ, Inc. stock analysis IONQ overview
Somewhat Bullish +50

Best Quantum Stock Following Q1 2026: IONQ, QBTS or RGTI?

🌍 Macro conditions are improving for speculative quantum stocks as inflation moderates and the Fed may pivot toward lower interest rates later in 2026.

📉 Lower yields and a softer U.S. dollar have boosted investor appetite for high-growth, pre-profit technology companies like those in the quantum sector.

⚠️ Despite improved sentiment, elevated volatility and persistent cash burn remain significant risks across the quantum computing industry.

🏆 IonQ (IONQ) is leading the commercial race due to its significantly larger revenue base, expanding backlog, and improving enterprise penetration.

📈 IonQ's first-quarter revenues surged 755% year over year to $64.7 million, driven by strong demand for its Tempo systems and cloud usage.

💰 IonQ beat consensus estimates by 30.2% on revenue, with nearly 60% of sales now coming from commercial customers rather than just government contracts.

🚀 IonQ raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $260-$270 million and reported remaining performance obligations (RPOs) of $470 million.

📉 IonQ still reported an adjusted loss of 34 cents per share due to continued investments in R&D and commercialization efforts.

💡 Analysts have set an average price target for IONQ that represents a 22.2% increase from the last closing price of $55.87.

📉 D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) delivered mixed results with revenues declining 81% year over year to $2.9 million due to one-time absence of a large sale.

🔒 Despite weak revenue, QBTS bookings surged nearly 2,000% year over year to a record $33.4 million, supported by new system orders and service agreements.

💪 Management highlighted rising enterprise adoption in optimization workloads for manufacturing, logistics, and AI applications.

💰 D-Wave's first-quarter loss narrowed to 5 cents per share, better than the consensus estimate of an 8-cent loss.

📈 Analyst price targets suggest a 54.3% potential increase for QBTS from its last closing price of $24.03.

🔬 Rigetti Computing (RGTI) posted encouraging operational progress with revenues tripling to $4.4 million, beating consensus by 35.6%.

🚀 Rigetti launched its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system and continues to improve gate fidelity while expanding availability through major cloud platforms.

💰 Rigetti ended the quarter with roughly $569 million in cash and investments with no debt, providing significant financial flexibility.

📈 Analyst price targets for RGTI suggest a 54.1% potential increase from its last closing price of $20.51.

👉 Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) has been assigned to all three stocks due to the need for clearer commercialization trends and sustained revenue execution.

🏆 Investors currently favor IonQ for its revenue scale and enterprise traction, while viewing D-Wave and Rigetti as higher-risk, high-upside plays.

📈 QBTS carries the highest implied upside based on analysts' average price targets according to the short-term analysis.

Bullish Signals
  • IonQ delivered the strongest quarter among pure-play quantum names with first-quarter revenues surging 755% year over year to $64.7 million, significantly beating analyst estimates by 30.2%.
  • The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $260-$270 million and reported remaining performance obligations (RPOs) of $470 million, a substantial increase of 554% year over year.
  • Nearly 60% of IonQ's revenues now come from commercial customers, signaling successful broader enterprise adoption beyond government contracts.
  • Based on analyst price targets, the average price target for IONQ represents an immediate upside increase of 22.2% from its last closing price of $55.87.
  • D-Wave Quantum achieved a record $33.4 million in bookings, representing nearly 2,000% year-over-year growth, supported by a significant $20 million system order and new enterprise agreements.
  • First-quarter loss for D-Wave narrowed to 5 cents per share, outperforming the consensus estimate of an 8 cent loss while maintaining strong pipeline momentum.
  • The analyst average price target for QBTS indicates a substantial 54.3% upside from its last closing price of $24.03 based on short-term targets.
  • Rigetti Computing revenues nearly tripled to $4.4 million, beating estimates by 35.6%, and successfully launched its new 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system.
  • Rigetti holds approximately $569 million in cash and investments with no debt, providing significant financial flexibility for future infrastructure expansion.
Risk Factors
  • The article identifies elevated volatility and persistent cash burn as major risks across the quantum computing sector.
  • IonQ reported an adjusted loss of 34 cents per share compared to a consensus estimate of only a 26 cent loss, indicating continued heavy investments in R&D and commercialization that may pressure margins.
  • D-Wave Quantum's revenues declined 81% year over year to just $2.9 million due to the absence of a large prior-year system sale, highlighting potential revenue timing unevenness despite strong bookings.
  • Rigetti Computing is described as remaining 'early in commercialization,' with its recent progress and financial position still subject to future execution risks.
  • All three quantum computing stocks (IONQ, QBTS, RGTI) currently carry a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), suggesting analysts see significant uncertainty and recommend waiting for clearer commercialization trends before becoming more bullish.
Full Analysis
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) is identified as the leading quantum computing stock following Q1 2026 earnings due to its superior commercial traction and revenue scale compared to peers D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI). The company reported a surge in first-quarter revenues of 755% year over year, reaching $64.7 million, which significantly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 30.2%. This growth was driven by strong demand for its Tempo systems, increased cloud usage, and international expansion. A key metric highlighting IonQ's maturation is that nearly 60% of its revenues now originate from commercial customers rather than government contracts, alongside a remaining performance obligations backlog of $470 million, up 554% year over year. Despite the revenue beat, IonQ recorded an adjusted loss of 34 cents per share against a consensus loss of 26 cents, reflecting continued heavy investment in R&D and commercialization efforts to maintain its technology lead. In contrast, D-Wave Quantum delivered mixed results with revenues declining 81% year over year to $2.9 million due to the absence of a large prior-year system sale, causing it to miss consensus estimates by 42.9%. However, bookings for D-Wave surged nearly 2,000% year over year to a record $33.4 million, bolstered by a $20 million quantum system order and a multi-year quantum-computing-as-a-service agreement with a Fortune 100 company, signaling improving pipeline momentum. Rigetti Computing posted encouraging operational progress with revenues nearly tripling to $4.4 million, beating consensus by 35.6%, supported by higher government activity and the launch of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system. Rigetti also boasts significant financial flexibility with approximately $569 million in cash and no debt. Analyst sentiment varies across the three companies based on short-term price targets, with D-Wave showing the highest implied upside at an average target representing a 54.3% increase from its closing price of $24.03, followed closely by Rigetti at 54.1% from $20.51. IonQ’s average analyst price target suggests a more modest increase of 22.2% from its closing price of $55.87. All three stocks currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), leading analysts and investors to suggest that while IonQ leads in immediate revenue execution, D-Wave and Rigetti offer higher-risk, higher-upside potential pending clearer commercialization trends and sustained revenue performance throughout the year.