Fox Corporation

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Fox Corporation stock analysis FOXA overview
Bullish +75

The World Cup could deliver Fox a ratings bonanza: 'There will be all sorts of viewership records'

📈 Fox Corp. is optimistic that hosting the World Cup in the U.S. will break viewership records compared to the 2022 final which drew only 25.8 million Americans despite a global audience of 1.5 billion.

⚽ The tournament features matches on U.S. soil, eliminating time-zone issues and expanding the field from 32 to 48 teams to maximize engagement.

📊 Fox predicted an average of 15 million viewers for games involving the American team, with hopes that a potential final win could drive total viewership to 150 million.

🏈 While soccer is growing in popularity—now the third most popular sport behind football and basketball—it still lags behind American football which typically draws five times the Super Bowl audience.

💰 Fox secured the broadcast rights for $500 million, a discount from analysts' estimates due to FIFA's previous scheduling conflict with the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

📺 The event is expected to boost subscriptions for Fox One, the network's newly launched sports streaming service.

🌍 Global ad spending related to the tournament is projected at $10.5 billion, though the U.S. impact may be more muted than in previous years.

🗣️ Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch predicts that viewership records will be set every day during the expanded tournament.

📉 Only 13% of Americans plan to watch the World Cup compared to nearly 50% in the U.K., highlighting a significant gap in domestic soccer fandom.

🎯 Fox Sports CEO Eric Shanks described the event as the single biggest sporting event in history taking place in the U.S. backyard.

Bullish Signals
  • Fox drew a record U.S. audience of 16.7 million for the 2022 World Cup final on its broadcast, setting an all-time high for American viewership.
  • The tournament is being expanded to include 48 teams this year, up from 32 in 2022, which is expected to drive higher total viewership and set new records.
  • Fox secured the rights to the tournament for $500 million, a significant discount compared to analyst estimates of roughly three times that amount, providing substantial upside potential.
  • Soccer's popularity in the U.S. is growing steadily, with 10% of Americans now ranking it as their favorite sport, making it the third most popular sport in the country.
  • The U.S. hosting the event eliminates time-zone disparity issues for viewers, potentially maximizing audience reach and engagement.
  • Fox One streaming service is expected to receive a boost from the tournament, driving additional subscribers to the newly launched platform.
Risk Factors
  • The U.S. team is a 60-1 longshot to win the final, meaning the projected 150 million total viewers for matches involving the American national team relies on an improbable outcome.
  • Only 13% of American respondents plan to watch World Cup games compared with nearly 50% in the United Kingdom and 30% or more in other major markets like Germany, France, India, and South Korea, indicating a significantly smaller domestic fanbase.
  • The U.S. advertising market impact is expected to be more muted than global figures, with historical boosts of up to 1% driven largely by the sheer size of the $300 billion U.S. advertising market rather than proportional growth.
  • Soccer remains the third most popular sport behind football and basketball in the U.S., suggesting limited upside potential compared to the undisputed ratings king of American football.
Full Analysis
Fox Corp. (FOXA) is positioning itself to capitalize on the upcoming FIFA World Cup, which will be hosted in the United States alongside Mexico and Canada, marking a significant shift for soccer viewership in the American market. The network expects the tournament to generate record-breaking U.S. audiences, with executives anticipating that matches involving the American national team could draw 150 million total viewers if the team performs well, though they predict an average of 15 million fans will tune in regardless of the outcome. This event is expected to deliver substantial advertising revenue and boost subscriptions for Fox's new streaming service, Fox One, as soccer continues to grow in popularity domestically, now ranking as the third most popular sport behind only football and basketball. The financial arrangement for broadcasting rights represents a major advantage for Fox, having secured the tournament for $500 million, which is approximately one-third of the estimated market value. This discounted rate was negotiated following FIFA's decision to move the 2022 World Cup to Qatar due to summer heat, a move that caused scheduling conflicts with traditional American sports seasons and necessitated compensation for future rights. Analysts predict that the expanded format featuring 48 teams will further drive viewership records, while the elimination of time-zone disparities between host nations should maximize accessibility for U.S. audiences. Additionally, the global economic impact of the World Cup is projected to inject $10.5 billion into ad spending, with the U.S. market expected to see a modest but meaningful increase in advertising investment tied to the event.