Ford Motor Company

🇺🇸New York Stock Exchange
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Ford Motor Company stock analysis F overview
Somewhat Bullish +45

Ford (F) Stock After Recent Pullback Is The Current Price Still Attractive - simplywall.st

📉 Ford stock declined 6.2% over the past month but remains up 36.9% year-over-year.

💰 The company generated approximately $9.8b in free cash flow over the last twelve months.

📊 A DCF model estimates an intrinsic value of US$17.33, suggesting a 19.2% discount to the current price.

🔍 Ford trades at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.29x, well below its calculated 'Fair Ratio' of 0.56x.

🚀 A bullish narrative projects earnings reaching US$12.5b by 2029 driven by software and energy storage.

⚠️ A cautious narrative anticipates revenue declines due to electrification costs and regulatory headwinds.

🏭 Ford operates in the US auto market with a focus on capital allocation and product mix management.

📈 The stock carries a valuation score of 4/6, indicating it screens as undervalued on multiple metrics.

Bullish Signals
  • Ford Motor is projected to have an intrinsic value of US$17.33 per share based on a Discounted Cash Flow model, implying a 19.2% discount to the current trading price.
  • The company's Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.29x is significantly lower than its proprietary 'Fair Ratio' of 0.56x and the broader auto industry average of 0.60x.
  • A bullish investment narrative projects earnings reaching US$12.5b by 2029, supported by higher-margin software and energy storage services.
  • Ford Motor delivered a total return of 36.9% over the last year despite recent short-term share price declines.
Risk Factors
  • A cautious investment narrative projects a revenue decline of 1.5% per year due to margin pressure from electrification costs and tighter emissions rules.
  • The stock faces execution risk regarding slower EV progress, higher input cost volatility, and aggressive global competition.
  • Ford's current valuation relies on assumptions that could be challenged if consumer preferences shift away from trucks and SUVs.
Full Analysis
Ford Motor (F) stock recently declined by 2.8% over the past week and 6.2% over the past month, trading around US$14.00. Despite this pullback, the stock remains up 4.9% year-to-date and 36.9% over the last year. The article analyzes whether the current price offers value by examining fundamental metrics against recent share price performance. Simply Wall St assigns Ford a valuation score of 4/6, indicating it screens as undervalued on four of six checks. A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model projects an intrinsic value of US$17.33 per share based on free cash flow forecasts extending to 2035, implying a 19.2% discount to the current price. Additionally, Ford's Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.29x is significantly below its proprietary 'Fair Ratio' of 0.56x and industry averages. The article presents two distinct investment narratives for Ford. A bullish view focuses on higher-margin software and energy storage services, projecting earnings of US$12.5b by 2029 with a fair value around US$19.45. Conversely, a cautious narrative emphasizes margin pressure from electrification costs and regulatory risks, projecting revenue declines and a lower fair value near US$10.27 if execution falters.