Duolingo, Inc.

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Somewhat Bearish -45

The SaaS-Pocalypse’s Biggest Losers: Figma, Duolingo, and Monday.com Suffer Brutal Meltdowns

AI-generated analysis

📉 Figma (FIG) shares have plummeted 86.5% from a 52-week high of $142.92, trading below $20 despite full-year 2025 revenue growth of 41% to $1.06 billion.

📉 Duolingo (DUOL) stock is down 83.3% from a peak near $544.93, with shares hovering just below $90 after reporting full-year revenue of $1.038 billion.

📉 Monday.com (MNDY) has fallen 80.2% from its high of $316.98, currently trading near $62.50 while maintaining a net dollar retention rate of 111%.

💰 Figma generated $38.5 million in Q4 adjusted free cash flow but remains unprofitable with net losses exceeding $1.25 billion for the year.

📈 Duolingo reported full-year net income of $414.1 million and expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins to 29.8% in the fourth quarter.

📉 Duolingo's 2026 bookings growth guidance disappointed, forecasting only 10-12% growth compared to the 24% posted in Q4.

💰 Monday.com reported full-year 2025 net income of $118.74 million and free cash flow of $309.9 million for the period ending Dec. 31.

📉 Figma's growth rate is projected to decelerate in 2026, with full-year revenue guidance between $1.366 billion and $1.374 billion (approx. 30% growth).

🤖 Investors are fleeing SaaS stocks due to fears that AI tools will erode the competitive moats of companies like Figma and Duolingo faster than expected.

📊 Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on Figma to $38 from $44, maintaining an Equal Weight rating amidst sector-wide pressure.

Bullish Signals
  • Figma demonstrated robust growth with full-year 2025 revenue up 41% year-over-year to $1.06 billion and Q4 revenue reaching $303.8 million.
  • Duolingo achieved impressive operational results with full-year revenue up 39% to $1.038 billion and daily active users rising 30% to 52.7 million.
  • Duolingo generated significant profitability with net income of $414.1 million and total bookings climbing 33% to $1.158 billion.
  • Monday.com maintains strong fundamentals with a net dollar retention rate of 111% and free cash flow up 4.8% year-over-year to $309.9 million.
  • Figma's growth pace remains triple that of peer Adobe, even though it commands a higher multiple relative to sales.
  • Monday.com's revenue guidance for full-year 2026 implies 18-19% growth, which outpaces many mature SaaS names in the sector.
Risk Factors
  • Figma remains unprofitable with trailing 12-month P/E of negative 7.39 and net losses for the year exceeding $1.25 billion.
  • Duolingo's 2026 bookings growth guidance of 10-12% represents a significant disappointment compared to the 24% growth posted in Q4.
  • The article notes that investors are pricing in the risk that AI could erode Figma's moat faster than expected, causing severe stock depreciation.
  • Duolingo's valuation reset reflects investor skepticism that AI language tools will cap future subscriber expansion despite strong current metrics.
  • Monday.com trades at a high P/E ratio of 27.9x, which may be vulnerable if growth slows further in the coming years.
Full Analysis
The article analyzes a significant decline in Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks, termed the 'SaaS-pocalypse,' driven by investor fears that AI tools will erode traditional business models. Three specific companies—Figma, Duolingo, and Monday.com—are highlighted as major losers despite posting robust financial growth. Figma's shares have dropped 86.5% from its 52-week high of $142.92 to below $20, while Duolingo is down 83.3% from a peak near $544.93, and Monday.com has fallen 80.2% from $316.98. Despite strong operational metrics, these stocks face severe valuation pressure. Figma reported full-year 2025 revenue of $1.06 billion (up 41%) and Q4 free cash flow of $38.5 million, yet it remains unprofitable with net losses exceeding $1.25 billion. Duolingo achieved full-year revenue of $1.038 billion (up 39%) and net income of $414.1 million, though its 2026 bookings growth guidance disappointed at 10-12% compared to the previous quarter's 24%. Monday.com maintains steady fundamentals with $1.23 billion in trailing revenue and a net dollar retention rate of 111%, but trades at a high P/E of 27.9x. Investors appear to be pricing in the risk that AI could disrupt these companies' moats faster than anticipated, leading to a sector-wide repricing. While Figma's growth remains triple that of Adobe, and Duolingo's user base expanded by 30% to 52.7 million daily active users, the market has reacted negatively to any deceleration in growth rates. The article concludes that while the fear discount may be overdone for patient investors, these stocks are unlikely to regain their former highs soon due to the prevailing sentiment against the SaaS sector.