Costco Wholesale Corporation

NASDAQ Global Select
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Slightly Bullish +25

Costco Wholesale stock falls ahead of September 24 earnings after Bank of America trims its target

AI-generated analysis

📉 Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone lowered Costco's price target to $1,095 from $1,200 ahead of fiscal Q4 earnings.

📈 Analysts expect Costco to report fiscal Q4 revenue of approximately $94.85 billion, up 10% year over year.

💰 Estimated EPS for the upcoming quarter is around $6.53, reflecting an 11% increase from the prior year.

📊 Costco shares are trading near $895, down from a recent high above $1,090 and below key moving averages.

🤝 A new same-day delivery partnership with DoorDash is set to launch after the current quarter closes.

💵 The company's latest twelve-month free cash flow is estimated at around $9.25 billion.

📉 The stock currently trades at a premium valuation of approximately 39 times forward earnings.

📉 Technical indicators show Costco trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with an RSI near 21.

Bullish Signals
  • Analysts expect Costco to deliver fiscal Q4 revenue of approximately $94.85 billion, representing a robust 10% year-over-year increase.
  • Estimated EPS for the upcoming quarter is around $6.53, indicating an 11% year-over-year growth in profitability.
  • Costco's latest twelve-month free cash flow sits at approximately $9.25 billion, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities.
  • The company maintains a high renewal rate for its membership model, providing steady recurring fee income that supports its premium valuation.
Risk Factors
  • Bank of America lowered its price target to $1,095 from $1,200, citing expectations for solid but not spectacular profit growth.
  • The stock has fallen below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, trading at a discount relative to recent highs above $1,090.
  • A discounted cash flow analysis suggests the current share price near $895 leaves the stock trading meaningfully above its intrinsic value based on cash flow projections.
Full Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp. shares are trading around $895 as of September 18, 2026, following a downgrade in its price target by Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone. The bank lowered its fair value estimate from $1,200 to $1,095 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing expectations for solid but not spectacular profit growth ahead of the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for September 24. Analysts across the broader community project Costco will deliver fiscal Q4 revenue near $94.85 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 10%, with estimated EPS around $6.53, up roughly 11%. This outlook suggests double-digit growth in both top-line and bottom-line metrics despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures facing the retail sector. Investors are closely monitoring Costco's membership model and recurring fee income as key drivers of its valuation, which currently sits near 39 times forward earnings. While technical indicators show the stock has fallen below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages into oversold territory, analysts note that a same-day delivery partnership with DoorDash will launch after the current quarter closes, potentially supporting future revenue growth.