ConocoPhillips

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Bullish +75

Here's What to Expect From ConocoPhillips's Next Earnings Report

AI-generated analysis

ConocoPhillips (COP) will release its Q1 2026 earnings on Thursday, April 30, before the market opens.

Analysts expect diluted EPS of $1.63 for the quarter, down 22% from the year-ago figure of $2.09.

For fiscal 2026, projected EPS stands at $7.09, representing a 15.1% increase from $6.16 in fiscal 2025.

Stock performance over the past 52 weeks shows COP up 37.9%, outpacing the S&P 500 but trailing XLE.

Recent Q4 2025 results showed revenue at $1.4 billion, down from $2.3 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.02 missing estimates.

Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a "Moderate Buy" average rating and 16 out of 29 analysts recommending "Strong Buy."

The average analyst price target is $132.82, suggesting 4% upside from current share levels.

Piper Sandler raised its price target to $154, citing potential supply tightening due to the US/Iran conflict.

Bank of America increased its price recommendation to $120 while maintaining an "Underperform" rating due to Strait of Hormuz tensions.

Barclays analyst Betty Jiang raised the price objective to $128, highlighting underappreciated cash flow benefits from higher oil prices.

The company targets output of 2.23–2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026.

Operations include exploration and production across Alaska, Lower 48 states, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysts project a rise in cash flow support for the E&P sector due to potential war-related supply impacts.

Recent price target increases reflect revised oil price forecasts driven by geopolitical tensions.

Market expectations suggest near-term volatility but durable benefits from inflation and conflict-driven supply constraints.

Bullish Signals
  • For fiscal 2026, analysts project ConocoPhillips's EPS to be $7.09, representing a 15.1% increase from $6.16 in fiscal 2025.
  • Analysts expect EPS to rise by roughly 5.9% year over year to $7.51 in fiscal 2027.
  • ConocoPhillips stock has surged 37.9% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 24.2% rise.
  • Piper Sandler increased its price target from $111 to $154, indicating an upside potential of over 26% from current share price.
  • Piper Sandler raised its mid-cycle WTI price forecast by $5 per barrel amid the US/Iran war, anticipating lasting supply impacts that will incentivize production investments.
  • Bank of America analyst Kalei Akamine raised the firm's price recommendation to $120 from $102 while lifting its Brent oil price forecast to $77.50 for 2026.
  • Barclays analyst Betty Jiang increased the firm's price objective to $128 from $118 and noted that the market is underestimating the near-term cash flow benefit from the current oil spike.
  • ConocoPhillips is included among the 12 Best Large Cap Energy Stocks to Buy Now and the 15 Best Safe Dividend Stocks for 2026.
  • The company targets an output of 2.23 million – 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with first-quarter production expected between 2.3 – 2.34 million barrels per day.
Risk Factors
  • EPS is expected to drop 22% year-over-year to $1.63 in Q1 2026, down from $2.09 in the same quarter last year.
  • The company missed on one of its last four quarters of earnings and failed to beat Wall Street's EPS estimates following its Q4 2025 earnings release.
  • Q4 2025 revenue came in at $1.4 billion, a significant decline from $2.3 billion in the same quarter the previous year.
  • Bank of America analyst Kalei Akamine maintains an 'Underperform' rating on ConocoPhillips shares despite a higher price target, citing ongoing tensions at the Strait of Hormuz as a key risk.
  • Analyst Betty Jiang from Barclays notes that while the oil price spike is 'unlikely to last for long,' this creates downside volatility concerns.
  • Despite recent positive analyst moves like Piper Sandler's upgrade, one analyst advises a 'Moderate Sell' rating among the 29 covering the stock.
  • Barclays raised its 2026 oil price estimates based on war-related factors, indicating that geopolitical instability is expected to significantly impact earnings and cash flow in the near term.
Full Analysis
Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips (COP), an independent exploration and production company, is set to release its Q1 2026 earnings report on Thursday, April 30, before the market opens. With a market cap of $152.6 billion, analysts anticipate diluted EPS of $1.63 for the quarter, which represents a 22% decline from the $2.09 recorded in Q1 2025. Over the past five years, the company has met or exceeded Wall Street's EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters, though it missed estimates on one recent occasion following its Q4 2025 earnings release in early February, where revenue dropped to $1.4 billion from $2.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.02 fell short of expectations. Looking further ahead, fiscal 2026 EPS is projected at $7.09, up 15.1% from the $6.16 seen in fiscal 2025, with an estimated 5.9% year-over-year increase to $7.51 expected for fiscal 2027. Stock performance over the past 52 weeks has seen COP rise 37.9%, outperforming the S&P 500's 24.2% gain but trailing the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which returned 42.1%. Analyst sentiment remains moderately bullish, with 16 of 29 covering analysts recommending a "Strong Buy," four suggesting "Moderate Buy," eight indicating "Hold," and one advising "Moderate Sell." The average price target stands at $132.82, suggesting a 4% upside from current levels. Geopolitical factors are significantly influencing analyst outlooks for the company. Piper Sandler recently raised its price target to $154 with an 'Overweight' rating, citing a revised WTI price forecast of $5 per barrel amid US/Iran war tensions, which they expect to tighten 2026 crude balances by approximately 2 million barrels per day compared to prior expectations. Similarly, Bank of America analyst Kalei Akamine increased the price target to $120 while maintaining an Underperform rating due to the Strait of Hormuz impasse, though it updated its Brent oil forecast to $77.50 for 2026. Barclays analyst Betty Jiang also raised her price objective to $128 with an Overweight rating, noting that while the current oil spike may not be durable, the market is underestimating the near-term cash flow support for the exploration and production sector even after the conflict subsides.