Coinbase Global, Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Somewhat Bullish +45

Coinbase, Circle stocks climb as analysts see Bitcoin-linked upside

📈 Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) shares climbed after William Blair analyst noted key risks are priced in and the companies have outsized leverage to a Bitcoin recovery.

📉 William Blair lowered its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and reduced EBITDA forecasts by 34% for both 2026 and 2027.

🔮 The brokerage predicts COIN's EBITDA will trough in H2 2026 before rebounding in 2027 if Bitcoin holds above $65,000.

📉 Piper Sandler reduced its price target on Coinbase to $155 from $170 while maintaining a Neutral rating.

🛒 ARK Invest purchased an additional 220,000 shares of Circle (CRCL) for approximately $13.9 million across three ETFs.

📊 Circle now represents 4.37% of the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF and 3.35% of the flagship ARK Innovation ETF.

⚠️ A key risk identified is Bitcoin failing to reclaim $65,000, which could keep trading volumes weak and delay EBITDA recovery.

🏆 Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley highlighted record options activity and strong US cash equities trading volumes despite lower spot crypto trading.

⚖️ Analysts warn of increasing competition as trading activity shifts toward newer products like perpetual futures and prediction markets.

Bullish Signals
  • William Blair asserts that key risks for Coinbase and Circle are already reflected in investor expectations, suggesting a potential upside if Bitcoin recovers.
  • The brokerage identifies 'outsized leverage' to a Bitcoin recovery as a primary driver for future earnings power at both companies.
  • Spot trading volumes may be bottoming out, which could lead to a quick appearance of operating leverage in Coinbase's earnings.
  • ARK Invest is aggressively adding to its Circle position, increasing holdings by 220,000 shares in a single day.
  • Circle has become a top-10 holding in ARK's flagship Innovation ETF, indicating strong institutional confidence in the stablecoin business model.
Risk Factors
  • William Blair reduced its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and lowered EBITDA estimates by 34% for both 2026 and 2027.
  • Piper Sandler lowered its price target on Coinbase to $155 from $170, citing subdued cryptocurrency trading volumes.
  • Consensus estimates across the crypto sector are likely to continue falling according to William Blair.
  • Bitcoin is struggling to hold above the $65,000 level, which poses a risk of keeping trading volumes weak and pushing the EBITDA trough further out.
  • Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley highlights increasing competition as trading activity shifts toward perpetual futures and prediction markets.
Full Analysis
Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) rose on Wednesday following analyst commentary from William Blair, which suggests that key risks for both companies are already priced in. The brokerage highlights their 'outsized leverage' to a potential recovery in Bitcoin prices, noting that spot trading volumes may be bottoming out and EBITDA is expected to trough in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027. Despite lowering its financial estimates for Coinbase by 12% for 2026 revenue and 34% for EBITDA across both 2026 and 2027, William Blair maintains a bullish stance on the long-term earnings power if Bitcoin holds above $65,000. Conversely, Piper Sandler lowered its price target on Coinbase to $155 from $170 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing subdued trading volumes contrasted with record options activity. ARK Invest increased its exposure to Circle by purchasing an additional 220,000 shares across three ETFs, valuing the acquisition at approximately $13.9 million. This brings ARK's total disclosed holdings in Circle to over 725,000 shares, representing significant positions in both the Fintech Innovation and flagship Innovation ETFs. The article notes that despite recent gains, both stocks remain under pressure for the year, with Coinbase shares down nearly 30% and Circle down almost 20%. Analyst Patrick Moley of Piper Sandler points to increasing competition from perpetual futures and prediction markets as a factor driving investor attention away from traditional cash equities trading.