Citigroup Inc.

🇺🇸New York Stock Exchange
Back to all articles
Citigroup Inc. stock analysis C overview
Bullish +75

Copper price: Goldman, Citi make bullish calls on supply woes

📈 Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecast to $13,735/ton, a 10% increase from its previous target of $12,465/ton.

🏦 Citigroup issued an aggressive bullish outlook, targeting $14,500/ton within the month and $15,000/ton by year-end.

🌍 HSBC warned of a "super-squeeze" in commodities driven by potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

💰 Copper prices are currently trading near record highs, just below $14,000/ton in London and up 10% year-to-date.

⚠️ Goldman reduced its global mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons due to disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in DRC.

🏭 Both major mines affected by incidents last year are not expected to operate at full capacity until 2028.

📦 US imports of copper beat expectations in H1 2026, with Goldman expecting import arbitrage to reaccelerate over the coming month.

📉 The global copper deficit outside the US is projected to increase tenfold to 640,000 tons from a previous estimate of 60,000 tons.

🤖 Strong structural demand from electrification and energy transition projects is expected to support high copper prices.

🧠 AI-related demand is cited as a key driver for resilient market conditions alongside the energy transition.

⚖️ Analysts note that lingering fears of US tariffs on refined copper may continue to support market sentiment.

📉 Dwindling inventories outside the US are identified as a contributing factor to elevated copper prices.

Bullish Signals
  • Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecast to $13,735/ton, representing a significant increase of over 10% from its previous target of $12,465/ton.
  • Citigroup has issued an aggressive bullish outlook, targeting prices of $14,500/ton within the current month and $15,000/ton within the next year.
  • Copper prices have already risen 10% year to date, outperforming gold as they trade just below record highs near $14,000/ton in London.
  • Goldman reduced its global mine supply forecast by a significant 350,000 tons due to disruptions at major mines like Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, which are not expected to operate at full capacity until 2028.
  • The copper market is supported by structural demand from electrification and energy transition projects, with resilient demand specifically noted from AI applications.
  • US imports beat expectations in H1 2026, and Goldman estimates the copper deficit outside the US market could increase more than tenfold to 640,000 tons versus 60,000 previously.
  • Lingering fears of US tariffs on refined copper may support sentiment, while tighter market balances outside the US are expected to keep prices elevated in the coming months.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecast to $13,735/ton, representing a significant increase of over 10% from its previous target of $12,465/ton.
  • Citigroup has issued an aggressive bullish outlook, targeting prices of $14,500/ton within the current month and $15,000/ton within the next year.
  • Copper prices have already risen 10% year to date, outperforming gold as they trade just below record highs near $14,000/ton in London.
  • Goldman reduced its global mine supply forecast by a significant 350,000 tons due to disruptions at major mines like Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, which are not expected to operate at full capacity until 2028.
  • The copper market is supported by structural demand from electrification and energy transition projects, with resilient demand specifically noted from AI applications.
  • US imports beat expectations in H1 2026, and Goldman estimates the copper deficit outside the US market could increase more than tenfold to 640,000 tons versus 60,000 previously.
  • Lingering fears of US tariffs on refined copper may support sentiment, while tighter market balances outside the US are expected to keep prices elevated in the coming months.
Risk Factors
  • Copper prices are trading just below $14,000 per ton in London, approximately $500 shy of the record set in January.
  • Goldman Sachs reduced its global mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons due to disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
  • Both facilities are expected to operate below full capacity until 2028 following major incidents last year.
  • Goldman analysts noted that US imports beat expectations in the first half of 2026, which may indicate market imbalances or reliance on external sources.
  • The copper deficit outside the US market could increase more than tenfold to 640,000 tons compared to the previous forecast of 60,000 tons.
  • Goldman analysts explicitly noted the risk posed by US tariff policy as a potential downside factor.
Full Analysis
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have issued bullish forecasts for copper prices, citing supply constraints and strong demand as key drivers. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end price target to $13,735 per ton, an increase of over 10% from its previous estimate of $12,465 per ton. This revision is attributed to a weaker-than-expected global mine supply outlook, with Goldman reducing its global mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons due to disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Both facilities are expected to operate below full capacity until 2028 following major incidents last year. Citigroup has adopted an even more aggressive stance, targeting a price of $14,500 per ton within the current month and $15,000 per ton within a year. The bank highlights lingering fears regarding potential US tariffs on refined copper as a sentiment booster, alongside resilient demand from artificial intelligence and energy transition projects. Goldman analysts also noted that US imports beat expectations in the first half of 2026 and anticipate reacceleration over the coming month due to open import arbitrage. They estimate the copper deficit outside the US market could increase more than tenfold to 640,000 tons compared to the previous forecast of 60,000 tons. Copper prices are currently trading just below $14,000 per ton in London, approximately $500 shy of the record set in January, having risen by 10% year to date and outperforming gold. HSBC also contributed to the bullish sentiment with a generic view that commodities face a "super-squeeze" due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman analysts maintain that structural demand from electrification and energy transition projects will support prices, though they note the risk posed by US tariff policy.