BlackRock, Inc.

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Why BlackRock is weathering the private credit storm better than peers

AI-generated analysis

📉 BlackRock reclaimed its title as Wall Street's most-valuable publicly traded asset manager from Blackstone after a five-year period.

💸 While rivals like Blackstone and Apollo suffered average stock declines of 31% amid private credit concerns, BlackRock dropped only 6.4%.

🏦 Approximately half a trillion dollars in new money flows into BlackRock's core public-market funds annually, providing stability during market turbulence.

📊 The company led the ETF industry with a record $527 billion in net inflows in 2025, offsetting headwinds from the private credit sector.

🔧 BlackRock's Aladdin platform and technology business offer stable revenue streams that competitors fully focused on alternative investments lack.

📉 Acquired firms like HPS Investment Partners are under scrutiny after shares of peers such as Ares Management fell about 40%.

⚠️ Investors worry about fundraising environments and midsize business loans made to entities with less-than-stellar credit quality.

🤝 Activist investor ValueAct took a stake in BlackRock, citing its strength not just in ETFs but also as a leading data and software company.

💰 Larry Fink previously built a business on ultralow-cost funds while remaining profitable before seeking higher fee growth in private markets.

🔍 BlackRock agreed to pay an estimated 35 times forward earnings for HPS, which is now facing valuation pressure comparable to Ares Management.

📈 Martin Small noted that clients are consolidating more portfolios with BlackRock due to its ability to manage public and private assets together.

🎯 Investors value BlackRock's diversified exposure compared to pure-play alternative asset managers whose faith in the sector has been shaken.

Bullish Signals
  • BlackRock reclaimed its title as Wall Street's most valuable publicly traded asset manager, surpassing former rival Blackstone after years of ceding that position.
  • Powered by a stable core public-markets business with over half a trillion dollars in annual new money, BlackRock has shown stronger performance than peers whose shares have tumbled an average of 31% this year.
  • The company led the ETF industry with a record $527 billion of net inflows in 2025, providing stable revenue even in turbulent market conditions.
  • BlackRock trades at a higher forward price-to-earnings ratio than most private-market competitors, reflecting investor confidence in its diversified business model.
  • Activist-investing firm ValueAct announced a stake in BlackRock in February, recognizing the company as not just an ETF leader but also one of the best data and software companies in the industry.
  • BlackRock's Aladdin platform remains a key risk management tool that enables it to handle assets across both public and private markets effectively.
  • Clients are already consolidating more of their portfolios with BlackRock, validating the strategy of bringing together asset management and technology across public and private markets.
Risk Factors
  • Concerns over the outlook for private-credit funds have caused shares of competitors like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo Global Management, and Ares Management to tumble by an average of 31% this year.
  • The stock price of BlackRock dropped 6.4% while competitors faced steeper declines, indicating market sensitivity to the health of its private-market bets.
  • BlackRock acquired HPS Investment Partners for approximately $12.5 billion at a premium valuation of 35 times forward earnings, a price comparable to peers whose valuations have since collapsed by about 40%.
  • Shares of BlackRock fell 7.7% immediately after HPS announced it would limit withdrawals from a flagship private-credit fund on March 7, erasing roughly the same amount of market value as the acquisition cost.
  • Investors are concerned that the fundraising environment for private-credit is set to get tougher, posing a risk to future revenue growth from these acquisitions.
  • The core business of ETFs brought in $527 billion of net inflows in 2025, but BlackRock still maintains significant exposure to the volatile private-credit sector which has seen investor faith shaken.
  • Valuations for BlackRock remain high compared to traditional asset-management rivals like T. Rowe Price and Franklin Templeton, suggesting potential downside if private-credit risks materialize.
  • Activist investor ValueAct is increasing its stake, signaling that the company's management or strategy may be viewed as having room for improvement despite strong public-market performance.
Full Analysis
BlackRock has emerged as the most valuable publicly traded asset manager for the first time in five years, reclaiming the title from rival Blackstone despite a challenging environment in the private credit sector. According to a Wall Street Journal article dated April 9, 2026, BlackRock is outperforming peers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Blue Owl Capital, whose shares have tumbled by an average of 31% this year due to investor concerns over midsize business loans and less-than-stellar credit. In contrast, BlackRock’s own stock has dropped only 6.4%, driven largely by its core public-markets business which accounts for the majority of its revenue and manages public funds totaling more than half a trillion dollars in new inflows annually. The resilience of BlackRock is attributed to its diversified business model and the stability provided by its exchange-traded fund (ETF) business, specifically the iShares brand. In 2025 alone, BlackRock led the ETF industry with record $527 billion in net inflows, and U.S. ETFs collectively attracted more money than ever through February of that year. This steady revenue stream from public stock and bond management offers a buffer against volatility in private markets, providing investors with more visibility into how the business performs across different economic environments compared to pure-play alternative asset managers. Consequently, BlackRock is trading at a higher forward price-to-earnings ratio than most private-market competitors for the first time in years, though it still maintains a valuation gap relative to traditional asset-management rivals like T. Rowe Price and Franklin Templeton. The company’s strategy involves leveraging its scale and technology, particularly the Aladdin platform, which was bolstered by the 2025 acquisition of private-market data provider Preqin. CEO Larry Fink initially focused on ultralow-cost index funds but expanded into private markets through a $12.5 billion acquisition of private lender HPS Investment Partners in July last year to boost fee growth. Despite the high valuation paid for HPS and recent fundraising concerns, BlackRock argues that its existing client relationships with institutional investors allow it to consolidate portfolios more effectively than peers. Activist investor ValueAct also increased its stake in February 2026, citing BlackRock’s strength as a top data and software company in addition to its ETF capabilities, though the long-term outlook for its high-risk private credit bets remains uncertain following HPS announcing a limit on withdrawals from a flagship fund on March 7.