Ameriprise Financial, Inc.

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Somewhat Bearish -35

AMP share price crashes 35% in 2026. What's next?

AI-generated analysis

📉 AMP share price dropped 34.43% year-to-date, with recent trading showing minimal movement around $1.20.

💸 The stock fell over 26% following the release of FY25 results in mid-February, marking its largest single-day decline since 2003.

📊 Financial results showed a 20.8% rise in underlying NPAT but a 11.3% drop in statutory NPAT, missing market expectations.

👤 CEO Blair Vernon will lead the company starting in January as Alexis George retires from executive roles on March 30th.

🏢 The leadership change adds to concerns following the sale of advice and insurance segments in August 2024.

⚠️ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also weighed on financial stocks, with oil price fears impacting inflation data.

🔁 Despite negative events, eight out of eleven analysts maintain buy or strong buy ratings on AMP shares.

💰 The average analyst price target is set at $1.705, suggesting a 42.08% potential upside from current levels.

📈 Morgan Stanley and Citi have both assigned buy ratings with price targets of $1.90 and $1.80 respectively.

🧭 Other firms like Jefferies, Jarden, and Ord Minnett also offer buy ratings, targeting prices between $1.65 and $1.75.

Bullish Signals
  • Despite a sharp recent decline, eight out of eleven analysts maintain a 'buy' or 'strong buy' rating on AMP, with an average price target of $1.705 implying a 42.08% upside potential.
  • Some brokerages are even more bullish, targeting a share price of $1.90 which suggests 58.33% upside over the next 12 months.
  • Major financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, Citi, Jefferies, Jarden, and Ord Minnett have all assigned 'buy' ratings to AMP with target prices ranging between $1.65 and $1.90.
  • Management demonstrated confidence in future performance by raising expectations for sustained demand following the release of FY25 results.
  • AMP achieved a 20.8% lift in underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) despite the market's overall negative reaction to the report.
  • Total assets under management grew 9% year-over-year, indicating continued trust and capital inflow from customers.
  • The incoming CEO Blair Vernon is expected to build upon a period of significant transformation and growth already overseen by Alexis George since August 2021.
Risk Factors
  • The AMP share price has crashed 35% in 2026, ending the year with a significant decline.
  • Shares are down 7.69% over the past year and down 34.43% for the year-to-date, indicating severe recent underperformance.
  • The stock crashed over 26% after releasing FY25 results in mid-February, marking the largest one-day fall since 2003.
  • Statutory Net Profit After Tax declined 11.3% despite underlying NPAT rising 20.8%, highlighting a divergence between market metrics and actual earnings quality.
  • The company sold off its advice and insurance segments in August 2024, raising concerns about reduced revenue streams.
  • Leadership uncertainty persists as CEO Alexis George is set to retire on March 30th while new CEO Blair Vernon transitions into the role.
  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over rising oil prices pushing Australian inflation higher continue to weigh heavily on financial stocks like AMP.
  • Investors expressed disgruntlement after results fell below market expectations across the board, leading to a significant sell-off.
Full Analysis
AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares closed flat on Tuesday at $1.20, but the stock remains significantly underperforming this year, down 34.43% year-to-date and 7.69% over the past year. The majority of the decline occurred following the release of FY25 results in mid-February, which saw a one-day drop of over 26%, marking the largest single-day fall for the wealth manager since a 36% plunge in 2003. Despite a reported 20.8% lift in underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) and a 9% increase in total assets under management (AUM), the company faced a 11.3% decline in statutory NPAT, results that fell well short of market expectations and disappointed investors. The downward pressure on AMP has been compounded by a series of strategic leadership changes and macroeconomic concerns this year. The business announced in January that Blair Vernon would become the new CEO following Alexis George's retirement on March 30th, ending her tenure as CEO since August 2021. Investors were concerned about uncertainty following AMP's repositioning efforts, which included selling its advice and insurance segments in August 2024. Additionally, geopolitical tensions related to the Middle East conflict have weighed on financial stocks, with fears that surging oil prices could push Australia's inflation data higher. Despite these challenges, analysts appear confident that the stock will recover over the next 12 months. TradingView data indicates that eight out of 11 analysts hold a buy or strong buy rating on AMP shares, implying an average target price of $1.705 at the time of writing, which suggests a potential upside of 42.08%. Some bullish forecasts are even more optimistic, predicting the stock could rise to $1.90 within the year. Major brokerages have maintained their positive outlook following the financial results, with Morgan Stanley setting a target price of $1.90, Citi at $1.80, Jefferies at $1.75, and Jarden as well as Ord Minnett both rating AMP a buy with a $1.65 price target.