The Allstate Corporation

New York Stock Exchange
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Bullish +75

Josh Brown calls a breakout in this insurance stock that has been going sideways for a year

📈 Josh Brown identifies Allstate (ALL) as a stock currently in a breakout phase after consolidating for over a year between $190 and $205.

💰 The insurance giant reported Q1 2026 earned premiums of $14.8 billion, driven by property-liability segments including auto and home insurance.

📈 Profitability surged due to lower-than-expected catastrophe losses and a meaningful 7.2% rate increase passed on to homeowners.

📊 Net investment income grew 10% year over year, while the total policy base expanded to 212 million customers.

🔄 Allstate returned $881 million to shareholders in Q1 2026 via a combination of dividends and share buybacks.

📈 The stock has gained 28% over the past year and 87% over the last three years, hitting 17 new all-time highs this calendar year.

🔍 Technically, the stock recently tested the $220 resistance level before pulling back to digest gains above the 50-day moving average.

🎯 Josh Brown sees a potential breakout above $222 and into fresh all-time-high territory if the current base holds.

⚠️ The 50-day moving average at $211 acts as immediate support, while the deeper 200-day support sits at $206 for traders watching for weakness.

📉 A close below $200 would signal a breakdown of the chart structure and a failure to establish a new trading range.

⚡ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, indicating healthy momentum without signs of overbought crowding that could lead to a quick reversal.

Bullish Signals
  • Allstate generated $14.8 billion in earned premiums from property-liability insurance in Q1 2026, with profitability surging due to lower-than-expected catastrophe losses and a 7.2% rate increase for homeowners.
  • Net investment income growth reached 10% year over year, driven by higher rates passed on to customers and successful capital allocation through buybacks and dividends totaling $881 million in Q1 2026.
  • The company's policy base expanded to 212 million customers, adding volume alongside pricing power that contributed to the stock making 17 new all-time highs this year.
  • Allstate is up 28% over the past year and 87% over the past three years (23% annualized), with technical analysis showing a breakout in progress above the upper end of its consolidation range.
  • The stock is holding ground just above the 50-day moving average at $211, creating a clean launching pad for a potential move above $222 into fresh all-time-high territory.
  • RSI levels at 52 indicate plenty of room for a continued upward move without the risk of momentum crowding that often causes quick reversals.
Risk Factors
  • Allstate faces significant downside risk if a major catastrophe such as a hurricane or wildfire season occurs, which could erase quarterly underwriting gains.
  • A stock price close below $200 would signal the breakdown of its chart pattern and potential further deterioration into bear territory.
  • The RSI indicator is currently at 52, which suggests there is little remaining room for momentum growth before a potential reversal due to crowding.
  • Common shares were down 3% year over year to start 2026, indicating recent weakness despite the broader positive stock price performance.
  • The breakout narrative relies on the company clearing and holding the $220 level; a failure to hold this level could invalidate the bullish technical setup.
  • A close below the 50-day moving average at $211 would act as a warning sign for traders, while a drop to the 200-day support at $206 is considered a deeper but still risky level.
Full Analysis
Josh Brown and Sean Russo from Ritholtz Wealth Management identify Allstate Corporation (ALL) as a potential breakout stock after a year-long consolidation period. They highlight that the insurance giant has successfully navigated a prolonged sideways grind between $190 and $205 over the past 12 months, with recent price action challenging the upper end of this range. The authors note that while the broader market is dominated by AI capital expenditure, Allstate represents a non-AI opportunity trading just below record highs following a successful breakout in late Q1 2026. Fundamentally, the article cites robust performance driven by property-liability insurance, which generated $14.8 billion in earned premiums for Q1 2026. Profitability was bolstered by lower-than-expected catastrophe losses and meaningful rate increases of 7.2% passed on to homeowners, contributing to a 10% year-over-year growth in net investment income. The company continues to expand its policy base to 212 million units, adding volume alongside pricing power. Historically, the stock has made 17 new all-time highs this year, rising 28% over the past year and 87% over the last three years, with significant capital returned to shareholders through an 881 million dollar total in Q1 2026 via dividends and buybacks. Technically, Josh Brown points to current metrics that suggest a continuation of upward momentum, noting the stock is cooling off above its 50-day moving average after digesting a run into the $220 area. He suggests the price could push above $222 into fresh all-time high territory, supported by an RSI of 52 which allows room for further upside without overbought reversal risks. Traders are watching the $220 level to confirm the breakout, while support is found at the 200-day moving average of $206, with a close below $200 representing a critical threat to the bullish chart structure.