AbbVie Inc.

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Somewhat Bullish +45

LLY or ABBV: Which Drugmaker is Likely to Offer Better Upside in 2026?

🔍 The article compares Eli Lilly (LLY) and AbbVie (ABBV) as top contenders for investment upside in 2026.

💊 Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $36.5 billion in 2025 sales, representing over half of its total revenue.

🚀 Both companies' GLP-1 or other key drug sales are expected to continue growing into 2026 despite potential market headwinds.

💼 AbbVie successfully navigated Humira's patent loss with Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which generated $26 billion in 2025 combined sales.

📈 Lilly expects its approved pipeline drugs including orforglipron to drive further growth and offset declining legacy product revenues.

🗓️ Lilly plans to launch its oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron in the US during the second quarter of 2026 to compete with Novo Nordisk's recent oral Wegovy.

⚠️ Price declines for Lilly's products in the US and rising competition are expected to impact top-line growth by a low to mid-teens percentage in 2026.

💰 AbbVie expects combined Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales to exceed $31 billion in 2026, surpassing its long-term guidance target for 2027.

🧠 AbbVie's neuroscience portfolio drove revenue growth with nearly $20% increase to $10.8 billion in 2025 led by Botox and migraine drugs.

⚖️ Lilly is diversifying beyond obesity into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas through M&A deals announced in 2025.

🏥 AbbVie acquired over $5 billion worth of early-stage assets in 2025 to bolster its immunology, oncology, and neuroscience pipelines.

📉 Both companies face legacy product declines but maintain strong balance sheets and global reach across key therapeutic areas.

🧬 Lilly is developing retatrutide, a triple-acting incretin for obesity and diabetes, alongside other indications in late-stage studies.

⚙️ AbbVie's oncology segment grew 1.5% year-over-year to $6.6 billion in 2025 despite some decline in key product Imbruvica sales.

🌍 Both firms have extensive global operations with strong presence in immunology, oncology, and neuroscience markets.

Bullish Signals
  • AbbVie successfully navigated Humira loss of exclusivity by launching two highly successful immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which generated combined sales of $26.0 billion in 2025 with year-over-year growth of more than 40%.
  • In 2026, AbbVie expects combined Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales of more than $31 billion, exceeding its long-term guidance targets and signaling strong product momentum.
  • AbbVie's neuroscience portfolio contributed robust growth with sales increasing almost 20% to $10.8 billion in 2025, driven by Botox Therapeutic, Vraylar, Ubrelvy, and Qulipta.
  • The oncology segment generated combined revenues of $6.6 billion in 2025, up 1.5% year over year, supported by higher sales of Venclexta and new drugs Elahere and Epkinly.
  • AbbVie has invested more than $5 billion in 2025 on acquisitions to bolster its early-stage pipeline in immunology, oncology, and neuroscience areas for long-term growth.
  • Eli Lilly expects its new drug portfolio including Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Kisunla, Omvoh, and Inluriyo to drive sales growth in 2026.
  • Lilly secured approvals for several new therapies such as Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla over the past few years, all contributing to revenue expansion.
  • Lilly's once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule orforglipron is expected to launch in the United States during the second quarter of 2026, offering a convenient alternative to injectable treatments.
  • AbbVie and Lilly both maintain strong R&D pipelines, significant market capitalizations, and extensive global reach across key therapeutic areas like immunology, oncology, and neuroscience.
Risk Factors
  • Lilly faces a significant headwind from declining product prices in the United States, with price erosion expected to continue dragging on top-line growth by a low to mid-teens percentage in 2026.
  • Sales of late-life cycle products including Trulicity, Taltz, and Verzenio are projected to be flat or decline in 2026 as competition intensifies.
  • Novo Nordisk's approval of an oral version of Wegovy in December 2025 gives the rival first-to-market advantage, potentially eroding Lilly's market share and revenues before its own oral obesity pill, orforglipron, launches in the second quarter of 2026.
  • Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes and obesity market is identified as a key headwind that could impact growth trajectories for Lilly's blockbuster Mounjaro and Zepbound.
  • AbbVie may face revenue challenges despite strong Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales, as it expects 2026 combined sales of $31 billion to fall short of its own long-term guidance, which also stands at $31 billion for 2027.
Full Analysis
The analysis compares Eli Lilly (LLY) and AbbVie (ABBV) as leading U.S. drugmakers with significant market capitalizations, strong R&D pipelines, and presence in key areas like immunology, oncology, and neuroscience. Eli Lilly's growth is heavily driven by its GLP-1 therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which generated combined sales of $36.5 billion in 2025, accounting for approximately 56% of total revenues. The company has secured approvals for multiple new therapies including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, with expectations that these alongside Mounjaro, Zepbound, Inluriyo, and Orforglipron will drive 2026 sales growth. Lilly is focusing on expanding into oral GLP-1 treatments via orforglipron, anticipated for U.S. launch in the second quarter of 2026, aiming to counter the first-to-market advantage gained by Novo Nordisk with its oral Wegovy pill approved in December 2025 and launched in January 2026. Additionally, Lilly is diversifying beyond GLP-1 into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience, having announced several M&A deals in 2025 to broaden its therapeutic footprint. AbbVie is positioned differently, primarily through its successful transition following the loss of exclusivity on Humira, which previously accounted for over 50% of revenues. Its immunology portfolio, consisting of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, generated combined sales of $26.0 billion in 2025 with growth exceeding 40%, and the company projects 2026 sales of more than $31 billion, slightly higher than its long-term guidance for 2027. Other segments are also performing well; neuroscience revenues rose nearly 20% to $10.8 billion in 2025 driven by Botox Therapeutic, Vraylar, Ubrelvy, and Qulipta, while oncology contributed $6.6 billion with contributions from Venclexta, Elahere, and Epkinly offsetting declines in Imbruvica. To fuel long-term growth, AbbVie has pursued an acquisition strategy, investing over $5 billion in 2025 to acquire assets in immunology, oncology, and neuroscience. Despite strong fundamentals, both companies face distinct challenges that could impact their upside potential in 2026. Eli Lilly faces pressure from declining product prices in the United States, which is expected to drag top-line growth by low to mid-teens percentages in 2026, alongside rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes and obesity market and flat-to-down sales for late-life cycle products like Trulicity, Taltz, and Verzenio. AbbVie continues to navigate the post-Humira landscape but relies on continued strong performance from Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Both companies maintain extensive global reach and diverse pipelines, making them attractive investment options, though Lilly appears more reliant on obesity growth while AbbVie has successfully diversified into aesthetics and eye care beyond its immunology core. The ultimate investment choice depends on weighing Lilly's explosive but potentially price-constrained GLP-1 momentum against AbbVie's robust diversification across multiple high-growth segments with a proven ability to replace blockbuster revenue losses.