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Bullish +75

The $10 Trillion Bet: Why Insiders Think SpaceX Could Rival Apple by Decade’s End

AI-generated analysis

📅 Bloomberg Businessweek aired a segment on June 2, 2026, projecting SpaceX could reach a $10 trillion valuation by the end of the decade.

🚀 The bull-case range for SpaceX spans from $3 trillion to $5 trillion before hitting the $10 trillion target.

📉 SpaceX is currently pursuing an IPO that would raise $75 billion at a valuation near $1.8 trillion, down from earlier marks above $2 trillion.

🍎 If successful, SpaceX's market cap could surpass Apple's current valuation of $4.590 trillion and continue growing.

💼 The bull case relies on three core businesses: Connectivity (Starlink), Space (launch/Starship), and AI.

💰 In Q1 2026, SpaceX generated $4.7 billion in consolidated revenue, up from $18.7 billion in all of 2025.

🌐 The Connectivity segment reported $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue with 49.8% year-over-year growth and strong EBITDA margins.

🚀 The Space segment ran a $657 million operating loss while funding $3,004 million in Starship R&D during 2025.

🤖 The AI segment generated $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue but incurred a $6.35 billion operating loss as it scales infrastructure.

💸 Starlink is currently profitable and generating cash, while Starship and AI segments are consuming capital for growth.

📡 Over 9,600 Starlink satellites serve customers across 164 countries, showing continued network expansion and compounding revenue.

🔥 SpaceX invested $3 billion in R&D during 2025 and another $930 million in Q1 2026 to advance Starship reusability.

🧠 NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described the AI buildout as "the largest infrastructure expansion in human history," validating the sector's scale.

📈 Vertical integration across launch, connectivity, and compute is expected to create a structural edge unmatched by public competitors.

🤝 The IPO pricing at $1.8 trillion suggests insiders believe the company is undervalued relative to its potential $10 trillion ceiling.

📊 For index fund holders like QQQ or VOO, SpaceX represents a significant theoretical question that is becoming a practical reality.

🏛️ Tech already accounts for 30.55% of the iShares MSCI World ETF, meaning a SpaceX IPO would reshape index composition.

🚀 The forward catalyst for this valuation bet is the successful execution of the $75 billion IPO priced around $1.8 trillion.

⚖️ The success of the $3 trillion to $10 trillion bull range depends on Starship cadence, Starlink monetization, and AI profitability.

📉 If the AI segment stops losing billions annually and starts contributing profit, it could unlock the full valuation potential.

🏦 Retirement portfolios holding broad US equity indexes will automatically own a slice of SpaceX's outcome regardless of investor preference.

Bullish Signals
  • SpaceX is pursuing an IPO to raise $75 billion at a valuation near $1.8 trillion, which insiders believe could eventually rival Apple's current market cap of $4.590 trillion.
  • The Connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue for 2025 with impressive year-over-year growth of 49.8%, operating income growth of 120.4%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 86.2%.
  • Over 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites are already serving customers in 164 countries, demonstrating strong global network expansion.
  • The AI segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue for 2025, validating the high infrastructure investment despite current operating losses.
  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described the AI buildout as 'the largest infrastructure expansion in human history,' providing a structural edge to SpaceX's integrated model.
  • The IPO valuation of $1.8 trillion is already below earlier private marks above $2 trillion, suggesting public investors may be entering at a steep discount to the insiders' potential $10 trillion ceiling.
  • Vertical integration across launch, connectivity, and compute creates a unique competitive advantage that no current public market competitor can match.
Risk Factors
  • SpaceX's AI segment incurred a $6.35 billion operating loss in 2025, raising concerns about its ability to transition from deep losses to profitability within the decade.
  • The Space segment operated at a $657 million loss while funding $3.004 billion in Starship R&D, indicating heavy capital expenditure requirements that rely on cash flow from other segments.
  • The bull case for SpaceX reaching a $10 trillion valuation hinges on three distinct conditions: continued compounding growth for Starlink, achieving cost and cadence targets for Starship, and the AI segment justifying its burn rate.
  • If Starlink's network expansion slows or fails to mature, the structural edge of vertical integration across launch, connectivity, and compute may not be realized as projected.
Full Analysis
Bloomberg Businessweek aired a segment on June 2, 2026, projecting that SpaceX could rival Apple by the end of the decade, with a bull-case valuation reaching $10 trillion compared to Apple's current market cap of $4.590 trillion. The analysis centers on SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which aims to raise $75 billion at a valuation near $1.8 trillion, significantly lower than earlier private marks above $2 trillion. This valuation gap suggests insiders may be offering public investors a steep discount relative to their internal ceiling for the company. The bull case relies on three distinct business segments: Connectivity (Starlink), Space, and AI. In 2025, the Connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue with 49.8% year-over-year growth and $7.168 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, while the Space segment operated at a $657 million loss to fund $3.004 billion in Starship R&D. The newly acquired AI segment contributed $3.2 billion in revenue but incurred a $6.35 billion operating loss in 2025. The strategy hinges on vertical integration where cash from Starlink subsidizes the heavy capital expenditure required for Starship and AI development. For long-term holders of broad market index funds like QQQ or the S&P 500, SpaceX represents a significant structural shift as it moves toward public markets. The segment argues that if Starlink continues its compounding growth—evidenced by over 9,600 satellites serving 164 countries—and Starship achieves its cost and cadence targets, the combined entity could dominate the compute, launch, and connectivity landscape. Ultimately, the success of this $10 trillion bet depends on whether the AI segment can transition from deep losses to profitability and if the integrated infrastructure provides a structural edge unmatched by current public competitors.