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Talarico wins Texas Senate Democratic nomination while Cornyn and Paxton head to Republican runoff - AP News

🗳️ State Rep. James Talarico defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas.

📜 John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off in a May 26 runoff for the Republican nomination for the same seat.

💰 The general election race has Democrats hoping for an upset, as no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.

🎤 Talarico pledged to supporters after his win, stating "We're about to take back Texas."

⚖️ Crockett's campaign plans to sue regarding voting issues in Dallas, citing disenfranchisement concerns.

🏆 A three-way Republican contest featuring Rep. Wesley Hunt resulted in Hunt conceding and no one reaching 50%.

💸 Republicans spent at least $64 million in TV advertising since July for Cornyn's race, while Senate GOP leaders prefer he not run against Paxton's liabilities.

🤝 President Donald Trump did not endorse either Cornyn or Paxton, though both campaigned on ties to the president.

🕰️ Voting in Dallas and Williamson County was extended due to confusion over new primary rules that turned some voters away.

⚖️ The Texas Supreme Court ruled that ballots cast after 7 p.m. under extended hours would be separated from others pending further clarification.

Bullish Signals
  • James Talarico won the Democratic nomination for Texas Senate after defeating incumbent Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in a close and expensive primary race.
  • Talarico's victory has reignited hopes within the Democratic Party for a potential upset in November, given Texas is reliably Republican but Democrats are dreaming of a big win.
  • Sen. John Cornyn successfully secured enough votes to avoid becoming the first Republican senator in Texas history to seek reelection and not be renominated.
  • Wesley Hunt conceded his loss, leaving a clear path for the top Republican contenders to advance without further division.
  • Both Sen. Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton have strong name recognition as they move forward to the May 26 runoff.
  • Sen. Cornyn has spent at least $64 million in television advertising since July to stabilize his support and build a strong campaign infrastructure.
  • Paxton remains popular in Texas despite past controversies, including his 2023 impeachment acquittal on corruption charges.
  • The runoff between Cornyn and Paxton will allow for additional campaigning until May 26, providing ample time for both candidates to build their cases.
  • Talarico's statement that 'We're about to take back Texas' demonstrates confidence in his ability to compete statewide against a Republican incumbent.
Risk Factors
  • The primary election required significant financial expenditure, with Cornyn and allied groups spending at least $64 million in television advertising alone to stabilize support.
  • Republicans worry that a victory by Paxton could result in a 'dead weight at the top of the ticket,' creating liabilities for defending the seat.
  • Paxton's campaign is challenged by his 2023 impeachment trial acquittal on corruption charges and ongoing accusations of marital infidelity.
  • Voting irregularities emerged with voters being turned away at polls due to new primary rules, prompting Crockett's plans to sue over disenfranchisement concerns.
  • The Texas Supreme Court ruled that ballots cast after 7 p.m. in certain counties should be separated, casting uncertainty on election outcomes.
  • No Democrat has won a statewide race in the reliably Republican state in over 30 years, creating an uphill battle for Democratic nominees.
  • Cornyn's relationship with Trump remains weak as he faces accusations of being a 'flawed' candidate who risks damage to the party legacy.
  • Both candidates are competing for Trump's endorsement despite the current lack of support, which could influence the general election dynamics unfavorably.
Full Analysis
State Rep. James Talarico defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in a closely contested Democratic primary to secure the nomination for U.S. Senate from Texas, ending a long period where no Democrat has won statewide in that state in over 30 years. In the Republican race, longtime Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a runoff scheduled for May 26 after defeating three-way contender Rep. Wesley Hunt, who conceded in third place. The Democratic primary was marked by confusion at voting polls in Dallas and Williamson counties, leading to extended voting hours and a state Supreme Court ruling requiring ballots cast after 7 p.m. to be separated from early votes; Crockett’s campaign responded with plans to sue over the alleged disenfranchisement issues. On the Republican side, Cornyn faces an uphill battle against Paxton for their fifth-term Senate seat, with both candidates heavily courting former President Donald Trump’s support, which neither secured explicitly during the election cycle. Cornyn spent at least $64 million on television advertising since July to stabilize his position and characterize a potential runoff victory by Paxton as risk to Republican stability, while Paxton framed his candidacy around national headlines involving his litigation against Democratic initiatives. Senate GOP leaders have expressed concern that Paxton’s liabilities from his 2023 impeachment trial acquittal and other controversies could weaken the party’s defense of the seat despite his popularity in Texas following a trip to Mar-a-Lago. The election occurred on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, marking the start of midterm primaries across multiple states including North Carolina and Arkansas, set against geopolitical tensions involving the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Talarico, who gained fame through viral videos, projected a message of hope for the Democratic party by stating in a victory statement that they were about to take back Texas, despite Trump’s 2024 win in the state by nearly 14 percentage points. The outcome leaves Democrats hoping for a November upset while Republicans anticipate a potentially contentious runoff where candidates will vie intensely for endorsement from the former president to shape the party’s future direction.