MGM Resorts International

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MGM Resorts Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

🎰 MGM Resorts operates luxury casino resorts including iconic properties like Bellagio and ARIA on the Las Vegas Strip.

📉 Over the past 52 weeks, MGM stock rose 21.6%, trailing the S&P 500's 31.4% gain but outperforming its consumer discretionary sector ETF (XLY).

📅 Recent FY2026 Q1 earnings reported on April 29 showed revenue growth of 4.2% to $4.45 billion, driven by strong performance in MGM China and digital operations.

📉 Adjusted EPS fell significantly 40.8% year-over-year to $0.49 due to higher operating costs and softer tourism demand affecting Las Vegas margins.

📉 Analysts project a continued decline in adjusted EPS for the fiscal year ending December 2026, with estimates indicating a 39.6% drop to $2 per share.

⚖️ The company has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating consensus in two of the last four quarters but missing on two others.

👥 Among 22 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is currently a "Moderate Buy" with a mix of Strong Buys, Holds, and Sells.

⚠️ On May 1, Jefferies downgraded MGM from "Buy" to "Hold," citing concerns over the company's operating structure and limited long-term growth visibility.

📉 Jefferies also cut its price target from $50 to $44 while still acknowledging management's effective execution.

🎯 The mean analyst price target of $44.21 represents a 15.7% premium to the current stock price.

🚀 The Street-high price target of $59 suggests a potential upside of 54.4% if that consensus is reached.

Bullish Signals
  • MGM Resorts reported revenue of $4.45 billion in FY2026 Q1, representing a 4.2% year-over-year increase driven by strong growth in MGM China, digital operations, and BetMGM.
  • Revenue from MGM China climbed 9%, while MGM Digital surged 43%, highlighting continued significant momentum in online betting and gaming segments.
  • Among the 22 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a 'Moderate Buy,' supported by eight 'Strong Buy' ratings indicating overall bullish sentiment.
  • The mean analyst price target of $44.21 represents a 15.7% premium to MGM's current price, suggesting immediate upside potential.
  • The Street-high price target of $59 suggests a substantial 54.4% potential upside for investors according to analysts.
  • Despite headwinds in profitability, management's execution was praised by Jefferies as they maintained a Hold rating even after adjusting their price target.
Risk Factors
  • Shares of MGM Resorts lagged the broader market over the past 52 weeks, rising only 21.6% compared to the S&P 500's 31.4% gain.
  • On Apr. 29, shares declined 1.2% following Q1 FY2026 earnings, even though revenue grew modestly by 4.2%. Adjusted EPS fell significantly by 40.8% year over year to $0.49 due to higher operating costs and weaker Las Vegas margins.
  • Analysts expect MGM's adjusted EPS for the fiscal year ending December 2026 to decrease 39.6% year over year to $2, indicating anticipated profitability deterioration.
  • The earnings surprise history is mixed, with the company beating estimates in only two of the last four quarters while missing on two other occasions.
  • On May 1, Jefferies downgraded MGM Resorts International from 'Buy' to 'Hold' and cut its price target to $44 from $50, citing concerns about the company's business structure and limited long-term growth visibility.
  • Among the 22 analysts covering the stock, there are three 'Strong Sells' alongside 11 'Holds', creating a mixed consensus that may not support significant upside.
Full Analysis
MGM Resorts International, with a market capitalization of $9.2 billion, operates luxury casino resorts and entertainment venues primarily in Las Vegas and international markets, including flagship properties like the Bellagio and ARIA. Over the past 52 weeks, MGM shares rose 21.6%, underperforming the S&P 500's 31.4% gain but outperforming the XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF's 21.4% return year-to-date. Following the report of fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29, stock declined 1.2%, driven by profitability pressures despite revenue growth. Revenue reached $4.45 billion, a 4.2% year-over-year increase fueled by MGM China's 9% growth, digital operations' 43% surge led by BetMGM, and overall momentum in online betting. However, adjusted earnings per share fell 40.8% to $0.49 due to higher operating costs, weakened Las Vegas margins, and soft tourism demand, with adjusted EBITDA dropping 8.9% to $590 million. Analysts anticipate adjusted EPS will fall another 39.6% year-over-year to $2 for the fiscal year ending December 2026. Among 22 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," comprising eight strong buys, eleven holds, and three strong sells. Jefferies downgraded MGM from buy to hold on May 1, cutting its price target to $44 from $50 due to concerns over the company's business structure and limited long-term growth visibility. While the firm praised management execution, it highlighted risks associated with MGM's operating and property company setup. The mean price target stands at $44.21, a 15.7% premium to the current price, while the highest price target is $59, implying 54.4% potential upside.